A Pro IM Mt. Tremblant preview
Ironman Mt. Tremblant is set in a lovely resort village 90 minutes outside Montreal. The rolling hills in the Laurentian Mountains make for a tough bike course and a challenging run. And with a 4000-point payoff for a win, and points galore down to 15th place, Mt. Tremblant has attracted a talented and most desperate pro field wanting to qualify for the Kona field late in the season.
Picking the favorites to win is quite a bit easier than picking the pros who are lagging behind the cutoff point in the KPR ratings and who have the talent to vault into the top 35 women or the top 50 men – plus automatic qualifiers — who will get into the 2013 Ironman World Championship field.
So we shall start with the simple equation of who will likely win this month’s most influential Ironman race.
Men
The men’s field, lacking in superstars who have already qualified for Kona, has no clear-cut favorite but has many excellent pros. Here are the top contenders:
Viktor Zyemtsev (UKR) This year he took 2nd to Ben Hoffman at Ironman Coeur d’Alene and 3rd at Eagleman 70.3. Last year, the 11-time Ironman distance winner won the Rev3 Cedar Point Iron-distance and Ironman Coeur d’Alene and took 6th at the ITU Long Course Worlds.
Luke Bell (AUS) This year Bell won Ironman Australia in 8:30:23, took 2nd at Geelong long course, and 4th at Honu 70.3.
Paul Amey (GBR) The 3-time ITU Duathlon World Champion has had swim-bike-run highlights the past two years. Last year he was 2nd at Ironman Nice and finished with a 2:52 run. This year he won Ironman Texas, 2 minutes ahead of James Cunnama, and was the only man to break 3 hours on a blazing hot marathon.
Romain Guillaume (FRA) Last year’s winner in a 8:40:48 time that reflects both the severity of the course and the weakness of the field. He also won Mt. Tremblant 70.3 and took 3rd at Ironman Lake Placid, albeit 43 minutes back of winner Andy Potts. This year he was 3rd at Mt. Tremblant 70.3 and 4th at Ironman 70.3 San Juan.
Daniel Halksworth (GBR) This year he repeated as winner of the notoriously challenging Ironman UK. Halksworth also ran a 2:39 open marathon.
Bert Jammaer (BEL) This Belgian loves tough courses. This year he was 5th at Ironman Lanzarote. Last year he was 3rd at Ironman Cozumel, 6th at Ironman Lanzarote and 7th at Ironman New York City.
Jozsef Major (HUN) This 9-time Iron distance winner (7 of them were in Hungary) has had a decent 2013. He won Leadman 125, was 3rd at Ironman Los Cabos and 4th at Kansas 70.3. In 2012 he was 3rd at Ironman New York City.
Paul Ambrose (AUS) This Aussie had an excellent 2012, winning Ironman Australia, Ironman 70.3 Rhode Island and placed 2nd at Kansas 70.3 and Syracuse 70.3. This year Ambrose has yet to find his form, placing 4th at Auckland 70.3 and 7th at Kansas 70.3.
Matt Reed (USA) This 2008 Olympian should be way better than his 2013 form so far – a 3rd at the Philadelphia Olympic distance and 7th at CapTex. At his best, Reed has on big races at every distance except Ironman. He has focused on this race – and would be a welcome sight on the podium.
Women
There is one clear favorite for first place and two strong contenders for the runner-up slot. But several stars are coming back into form and have the firepower to be in the mix.
Mary Beth Ellis (USA) Since 2011, Ellis has been a house afire on the Ironman and Ironman 70.3 circuits. This year she has been virtually perfect, with wins at Alpe d’Huez, Ironman Nice and Ironman 70.3 Florida. She remains on the same high plane she was in 2012, when she won Ironman Cozumel, Ironman New York and Ironman Texas.
Liz Blatchford (GBR) About a year ago Liz Blatchford decided to move on from ITU racing to pursue longer distances and she has done quite well. This fast Brit won 70.3 Boulder and Cozumel in 2012, and took the wins at 70.3 Busselton and Ironman Cairns this year. She now has Kona on her mind.
Erika Csomor (HUN) At 39, this multiple ITU duathlon World Champion and 7-time Powerman Zofingen winner is as fierce as ever, winning Ironman Austria in 8:59:31, Challenge Rimini, and Ironman Los Cabos.
Jennie Hansen (USA) Hansen broke through in 2012 with a 2nd at Ironman Lake Placid. This year she was 2nd at Ironman Texas, 4th at Ironman 70.3 Syracuse and won Ironman Lake Placid.
Jo Lawn (NZL) This 7-time Ironman New Zealand champion may be closing in on 40, but she has maintained a high level in 2013 with a 2nd at St. Croix 70.3, 3rd at Florida 70.3 and Challenge Wanaka, and 4th at New Orleans 70.3.
Rebekah Keat (AUS) Should be a co-favorite if she had been healthy lately. But Keat, who posted the 3rd-fastest Ironman distance time ever (8:39) at Roth in 2009, has been struggling with calf woes. Under the guidance of coach Siri Lindley, Keat once again hopes to match her 2012 form that included 1st at Ironman 70.3 Shepparton, 2nd at Ironman Western Australia, 2nd at Ironman Texas, 2nd at Ironman USA and 6th at Ironman Melbourne.
Sarah Piampiano (USA) After her breakthrough win at the swim-canceled Ironman 70.3 New Orleans in 2012, Piampiano has been consistent in 2013 – 2nd at Pucon 70.3, 4th at Ironman Austria, 5th at Eagleman 70.3 and 9th at Ironman Melbourne.
Anja Beranek (GER) Could be a sleeper. Her 2013 season includes a win at Ironman Switzerland plus two unspectacular 70.3s — a 7th at St. Polten and 8th at Mallorca. Her 2012 results show that she has much more in the tank if healthy. Just a year ago, Beranek won Ironman 70.3 Wiesbaden, was 2nd at Ironman Frankfurt and took 4th at Ironman 70.3 Switzerland (where Nicola Spirig won in a pre-Olympic outing).
Bree Wee (USA) After her joy at winning her first Ironman last year in Louisville, Wee has had decent results in 2013 including 3rd at Ironman 70.3 Honu (despite an off course excursion) and 7th at Ironman Coeur d’Alene.
The Kona Qualifying Shuffle
This year, Ironman has designated 50 pro men slots and 35 slots for pro women at the Ironman World Championship in Kona – plus additional slots for automatic qualifiers. With automatic qualification granted to Ironman World Championship winners from the past 5 years plus the winners of the most recent Ironman 70.3 World Championship and the Hy-Vee 5i50 Championship, the 2013 men’s pro field will number 53 and include recent Ironman World Champions Craig Alexander and Pete Jacobs as well as Ironman 70.3 World Champion Sebastian Kienle. On the women’s side, recent Kona winners Leanda Cave and Mirinda Carfrae are automatic qualifiers and will increase the women’s pro field to 37. In addition, the 27th KPR ranked woman Kelly Williamson effectively bowed out of the 2013 Kona pro qualifying process by failing to complete a full Ironman within the qualifying window, thus moving up another woman on the KPR list.
Ironman has structured 2013 Kona qualifying in a two-step process. As of July 28, the top 40 men and 28 women on the KPR rankings (not counting the automatic qualifiers) made it into the big show. No matter the adjustments made for automatic qualifiers and those who did not validate, there remains 10 slots for pro men and 7 slots for pro women up for grabs in August. While there also remain four other Ironman events and three more Ironman 70.3s before the August 25 cutoff point, Ironman Mt. Tremblant with its bounty of Kona qualifying points overshadows all the others in terms of determining the Ironman World Championship professional fields.
As usual, the competition is fierce. Right now the final Kona qualified male pro is 43rd-ranked Ben Cotter, who has 3,790 points. Currently 53rd in the rankings – with a big target on his back – is Justin Daerr, with 3,510 points. As of now, the final Kona qualified woman is Rebecca Hoschke of Germany, who is ranked 31st with 4,740 points. The 37th-ranked woman – like Daerr, on the Kona Qualifying Bubble – is Rebekah Keat, with 4,160 points.
With Kona Qualifying Points closing after eight races on August 25, those on the outside are chasing a moving target. But with the Ironman Mt. Tremblant points bonanza rewarding the winners with 4,000 points, runners-up with 3,520, 3rd with 3,120, 5th with 2,400, 10th with 1,600, 13th with 1,120, and 800 for 15th, a lot of Ironman pros have gone to Quebec with at least a theoretical chance of advancing to the promised land.
Among the men, those with a chance include: Viktor Zyemtsev (63rd) 2,745; Trevor Delsaut (70th) 2,520; Bert Jammaer (76th) 2,440; Luke Bell (81st) 2,320; Romain Guillaume (82nd) 2,315; Swen Sundberg (86th) 2,230; Paul Amey (92nd) 2,075 points; Daniel Halksworth (94th) 2,020.
While Rebekah Keat is on the bubble in 37th place and in need of more points to secure her Kona slot, several Mt. Tremblant women have at least a good theoretical shot: Jennie Hansen (39th) 3,960; Liz Blatchford (40th) 3,930; Bree Wee (43rd) 3,795; Haley Chura (47th) 3,390; April Gellatly (49th) 3,300; Hillary Biscay (55th) 3,060; Anja Beranek (64th) 2,630; Oleysa Pristayko (66th) 2,570; Jo Lawn (67th) 2,450; Nina Pekerman (69th) 2,340; Keiko Tanaka (69th) 2,340; Jessica Smith (90th) 1,760.
Based on recent form and current KPR standing, some pro men with the best chance of making the cut include:
Jozsef Major – Is in by 20 points – but probably needs 400 more (15th or better).
Viktor Zyemtsev – Needs 766 points theoretical minimum (15th place or better). Probably needs 1,200 (12th place or better).
Luke Bell – Needs 1,191 points minimum (requires 12th or better). Probably needs 1,500 (10th or better).
Romain Guillaume – Needs 1,196 points minimum (12th or better). Probably needs 1600 (10th or better).
Paul Amey – Needs 1,436 points minimum (11th or better). Probably needs 1,800 (8th or better).
Brandon Marsh – Needs 1,201 points minimum (12th or better). Probably needs 1,700 (9th or better).
Daniel Halksworth – Needs 1,491 points minimum (11th or better). Probably needs 1,900 (8th or better).
Some pro women with the best chance of making the cut include:
Liz Blatchford – Needs 231 minimum (15th or better). Probably needs 700 (15th or better).
Jennie Hansen – Needs 201 minimum (15th or better). Probably needs 7000 (15th or better).
Jo Lawn – Needs 1,711 minimum (9th or better). Probably needs 2,100 (6th or better).
Bree Wee — Needs 366 minimum (15th or better). Probably needs 800 (14th or better).
Hillary Biscay – Needs 1,101 minimum (13th or better). Probably needs 1,600 (10th or better).
Haley Chura – Needs 771 minimum (15th or better). Probably needs 1,300 (11th or better).
Anja Beranek – Needs 1,531 minimum (11th or better). Probably needs 1,900 (8th or better).
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