Wildflower odds: The late line

May 1, 2009

This is yet another futile attempt at prognosticating one of the world's great triathlons held at the sunny, hilly, challenging half Ironman course at Lake San Antonio in inland Monterey County, California. This year the men's field is heralded as the best in history. But with 4-time winner and defending champion Chris McCormack passing up this year, second-fastest Wildflower champ ever Simon Lessing retired, and current Ironman Hawaii champ and half Ironman distance master Craig Alexander elsewhere, the field would more accurately be tabbed as the deepest quality Wildflower men's field in history.

The men

Terenzo Bozzone, 24, New Zealand 3-1

Although he is not yet in top form in 2009, Bozzone has had a nice buildup after his smashing Ironman 70.3 World Championship last November. In March at his Ironman debut, he took 2nd to Cameron Brown at New Zealand, and recently took second to Andy Potts at St. Anthony's. The reason Bozzone is this man's favorite goes back to Bozzone's thunderous, out-of-this-world, prodigious course record here in 3:53:43 at age 21. That's 5:40 faster than the next best man, Simon Lessing. Scary detail: Bozzone smashed the Wildflower run record with a 1:11:57, too. Last year, Bozzone took 5 wins and 2 seconds and is in his prime at the tender age of 24.

Eneko Llanos, 32, Spain 7-2

The quiet Spaniard is a two-time XTerra world champion and loves Wildflower's rugged dirt trails. He had Chris McCormack beat last year until he thought his hamstrings were breaking on the final steep downhill on the run. At Ironman Hawaii, he aced the bike and beat everyone but Craig Alexander — and might have taken care of that if his feet weren't shredded by blisters. The two-time Olympian had a good spring training and could win if his feet stay blister-free and he tops last year's 1:15:32 run.

Andy Potts, 31, Colorado Springs CO 4-1

First timer at Wildflower loves tough courses, witness his two Escape From Alcatraz wins. The 2007 Ironman 70.3 World Champion had an excellent 2008 with wins at Ironman 70.3 California, Timberman 70.3 and Escape, took 2nd at St. Anthony's, 3rd at New York City, and made an impressive 7th place Ironman Hawaii debut absolutely under-trained. This year he took second to Matt Reed at Ironman 70.3 California, and beat Terenzo Bozzone at St. Anthony's. A three-time ITU World Cup winner and 2004 Olympian, super swimmer Potts can get out front and has the speed, strength and stamina required to finish the job.

Chris Lieto, 36, Danville CA, 5-1

This three-time Ironman champion broke the Wildflower bike record last year with a blazing 2:14:00, topping the best attempts of certified uberbikers like Jurgen Zack and the 2:14:57 last year of 2007 Wildflower champion Bjorn Andersson. Even better, Lieto's improving run should easily top his 1:22:45 effort last year — which still brought him home in 3rd place.

Chris Legh, 36, Australia/Boulder CO WAS 7-1 – LATE SCRATCH IMPENDING BABY

I am sure that placing the stellar Mr. Legh, a two time Ironman champ, this low on the odds totem pole is a mistake and I am sure he will prove me wrong. No one save McCormack has had such consistent success here, starting with a win in 4:01:22 in 2000, a 5th in 2005, 2nd in a swift 4:01:38 to Bozzone's record in 2006, 2nd to Andersson in 2007, and 4th last year with a strong 1:15:21 run.

Rutger Beke, 31, Belgium 9-1

Beke started his Wildflower career strong in 2004 with a 4:06:09 finish just 19 seconds behind 4-time winner Chris McCormack. That day, Beke's 1:16:08 run carved 2:38 from Mecca's lead – he just ran out of room. With a 2nd, 3rd, 4th at Ironman Hawaii and a comeback 3rd place last year at Kona, Beke has the bike and run to win it. However, he's coming off a recent off-the-back day at Oceanside 70.3 and may not be at the top of his game.

Torbjorn Sindballe, 32, Denmark 10-1

This prince of Denmark would never be tabbed this low except he's embarked on a complete body and technique makeover after last year's deep fade on the run after leading off the bike at Kona. "I had so many things going wrong on my body – lower back, upper neck, shoulders – that I had ignored for 15 years, I knew I had to make a change," said Sindballe. After four weeks off, he started the process and has a good swim, excellent bike time trials and a run that's still a work in progress. Back in 2005, Sinballe debuted Wildflower with a second place finish in a swift 4:01:16, just 1:43 behind Simon Blessing's record breaking 3:59:33. On that day, Sindballe's 15:53 bike led Lessing by 3 minutes, only to have his 1:18:56 run get annihilated by the Great Briton. Sindballe can run with the best, as proved by his record setting 1:11 run split while winning Ironman California 70.3 in 2002. Just not this Saturday.

Bjorn Andersson, 30, Sweden 11-1

This burly Swede is a killer swimmer and deadly biker and proved you CAN win Wildflower on the bike on a tough day in 2007 when he rode 2:15:05 and hung on with a 1:26:04 run to top Chris Legh's 1:21:2 charge by 28 seconds. Last year Andersson toped that bike with a 2:14:27 split and a 1:26:09 run for a better 4:05:50 finish. But, given perfect conditions, Andersson's better 4:05:50 finish was only good for 7th.

Ain Alar-Juhanson, Estonia, 14-1

First timer at Wildflower, Lanzarote winner, this 6-foot 5-inch Estonian can motor on the bike and diesel through the run.

Paul Amey, Great Britain, 15-1

This hard-core, skinny, slim Great Briton took second at the 1998 ITU Triathlon World Championship to Simon Lessing, and won ITU Duathlon World titles in 2005, 2007 and 2008. Although he has some Ironman 70o.3 wins, has been inconsistent at Ironman Hawaii last year 17th and off form at Ironman California 870.3 this spring.

Reinaldo Colucci, 22, Brazil 16-1

Wildflower first timer has a second to Oscar Galindez at Ironman Brazil, and traded wins with Galindez the last two years at Pucon. A disappointed 2008 Olympian, he's aiming at IM Brazil and Kona and a return engagement at Ironman 70.3 Worlds. Just 22, a member of Brett Sutton's Team TBB crew, the tall, skinny kid from Brazil he was tabbed as the next Simon Lessing and still has time to prove it. .

Joe Gambles, 27, Australia, 19-1

Gambles has a rock-solid 1:115 half marathon to finish off a good swim and a decent-for- Wildflower 2:21 bike. His 4th place at Wildflower in 2007 may be his best.

Fraser Cartmell, GBR 20-1

Took 5th here last year in 4:04:51 with a 2:21:00 bike and 1:18:52 run. His record elsewhere indicates he can do better — two wins at Ironman 70.3 UK, a 2nd at Timberman to Craig Alexander and a 3rd and 2nd at Ironman South Africa.

Luke Bell, 30, Australia. 22-1

The 2004 model Luke Bell who took third here in 4:08:08 with a 1:18:50 run, the Luke Bell who garnered a 5th at age 23 at Ironman Hawaii, and the Luke Bell who took seconds at Ironman Lake Placid and Ironman Brazil, should have a better chance than this year's model, who is still digging out from an extended slump.

The women

The absence of three-timer Wildflower winner Samantha McGlone, who holds the first, second and fourth fastest ever winning times here, leaves a palpable hole. However, there's plenty of first rate competitors to fill the gap, ready to join the hallowed winners of this world's toughest half Ironman challenges. On Saturday, one of these great competitors will join the ranks that include 5-timer champ Paula Newby-Fraser, three time champs Donna Peters and Sam McGlone, two time champion Heather Fuhr, and tri-legends Natascha Badmann (2004) Barb Lindquist (2001) Becky Lavelle (2007) and Julie Moss (1987).

Julie Dibens, Great Britain, 7-2

I think she's a Wildflower rookie. But Dibens has won two XTerra World titles, possesses a killer bike, can run to win, and loves rugged hilly courses.

Leanda Cave, Great Britain 4-1

The tall willowy contender is hard as nails and finished second to McGlone last year in her Wildflower debut. While her 24-minute swim ands 2:39:50 ride were on track to win, her 1:29:16 run gave away five minutes to McGlone. Cave has the speed with a 2002 ITU World Championship gold, a 2007 Escape from Alcatraz win, and some Ironman 70.3 wins as well.

Erika Csomor, Hungary, 35, 5-1

This Team TBB stalwart set the second fastest Ironman distance time ever last year while lacing second at Quelle Challenge Roth, won three Ironman titles and some Ironman 70.3 races. She also holds 4 Powerman Zofingen titles and an ITU Duathlon World crown to boot. An off form performance early this year marks her as not yet at her best, but still has a killer run to take advantage of Wildflower's hilly trails.

Pip Taylor, Australia 6-1

In 2003, Taylor rose high in ITU rankings with wins at Manchester second at New York. On the comeback trail in 207, she took second at Escape From Alcatraz, and was third overall in 4:339:25 with the second best run (1:24:54) at Wildflower.

Alexis Smith, 34, Monterey County, CA 9-1

Pinky, a product of the legendary Waddell family of nearby Seaside, California, took 4th here in 2004, 9th in 2005, 10th in 2006, 4th in 2007 and 8th last year. In 2008, she was an impressive 6th at Escape From Alcatraz, and won the Danskin Women's Triathlon in Disneyland.

Linsey Corbin, 26, Missoula Montana 8-1

Finished 5th at Ironman Hawaii last October and has crafted a great bike and good run. Corbin took a 7th at Wildflower last year, but is much better after her finish as top American woman at Hawaii.

Virginia Berasategui of Bilbao Spain 12-1

This Ironman Lanzarote winner can win here if on her game.

Tyler Stewart, Novato CA 16-1

Took 6th here in 2007, but her potential on this tough bike course has not yet been tapped. Stewart holds the world best timer for the women's Ironman bike split with a 4:47 at Ironman Florida a few years ago.

The field: 20-1

Heather Wurtele (5th here last year) of Canada, Sunny Gilbert (6th here last year) of Corvallis Oregon.

LATE SCRATCH Angela Naeth (7th here last year) stress fracture right leg.