Late Odds Nautica NYC Triathlon
NEW YORK CITY — The 2009 Life Time Fitness Series for the Toyota Cup got off to a rousing start two weeks ago in Minneapolis as Matt Reed held off a fast charging Andy Potts and three-time Life Time Series Toyota Cup winner Greg Bennett in a finish line sprint.
It looks like the three signed on for a rematch at the Nautica New York City Triathlon tomorrow, with only 2004 Aussie Olympian Simon Thompson, Californian Chris Foster, and 2008 Chicago winner Stuart Hayes having outside chances of cracking the podium.
The absence of dominant Minneapolis winner Sarah Haskins and Laura Bennett, both taking shots at the ITU World Championship Series race in Hamburg, seems to leave New York wide open to Great Britain's Julie Dibens, the USA's Becky Lavelle, Rebeccah Wassner, and Sarah Groff, with Aussie Pip Taylor hoping to regain form and take a shot at the podium.
Acknowledging that picking winners in the volatile, competitive world of non-drafting short course triathlon is a fool's errand at best, nonetheless here are my picks for Sunday's 8th battle in the Big Apple:
The men
Greg Bennett (AUS) 2-1
I know, I know. Matt Reed is hotter than a pistol, with a bike and run to die for, plus he's beaten these men and last year Simon Whitfield in dashes to the line. And Andy Potts took St. Anthony's non-drafting title and Escape from Alcatraz. So why GB in NYC? The man has been recovering from lingering injuries for half a year, and yet with little training unleashed a punishing bike and a great run that only gave out near the end and lost by two seconds. GB has won this race four straight times and this series three times and his injury is further along.
Matt Reed (USA) 5-2
I am sure Matt's brilliant wife Kelly will read this and use it to pump up the 6-foot 5-inch champion. It will be hard to be more on form than Reed has been so far this year after wins at Oceanside, Rev3 and Minneapolis.
Andy Potts (USA) 3-1
How can you pick against Potts, who came from 25 seconds back with a race-best 31:25 run at Minneapolis to come up just a chest short against Reed? The same Potts who won St. Anthony's and Escape From Alcatraz and took top American and fourth overall at the Olympic-level field at Washington DC? Just taking a risky guess that Andy might have a slightly off day, as he did at Oceanside when Matt Reed outran him.
Stuart Hayes (GBR) 7-1
Not even sure he is here. This Great Brit took 2nd at NYC last year, won Chicago and took 3rd at Dallas., this year he took 3rd at St. Anthony's, but then took off for Europe. Matt Reed sees him as a threat and vows not to let Hayes hang on in the bike — even non-drafting races offer some help for a close but legal distance follower.
Chris Foster (USA) 9-1
This Redondo Beach, California newcomer likely does not have the swim (19:20 at Lake Nokomis) or bike (two minutes off lead pack at Minneapolis) but his 2nd-best 31:36 run at Minny gives him a puncher's chance for the podium here..
Simon Thompson (AUS) 11-1
Was off the back at Minneapolis, but showed his true form with a 2nd place last week at Vineman 70.3. in 2004, made the Olympics and blasted all Aussie comers. His 1:11 half marathon in Santa Rosa shows he has the foot speed to break up the Reed-Potts-Bennett triumvirate.
The women
Rebeccah Wassner (USA) 3-1
Yes yes, she got trounced at Minneapolis and finished 4th behind Haskins, Dibens and Lavelle. But I say she was off form, has the NYC home course advantage, and her devastating wins at St. Anthony's and Philadelphia should validate her favorite role here. Plus, she got dropped on the bike at Minny, but scored a race-best 35:55 run that was two Minutes faster than Lavelle and Dibens.
Julie Dibens (GBR) 4-1
This two-time Xterra World Champ can go hard (race-best at Minneapolis) on the bike and hold on in the run. But she gives it away on the swim (20:40 at Lake Nokomis)
Becky Lavelle (USA) 5-1
This Queen of the non-drafting world in 2006 and 2007 and won the Life Time Series last year. So why not win NYC? A 6th best 38:12 run at Minneapolis has to improve.
Pip Taylor (AUS) 6-1-1
This Aussie once stood number 1 in ITU World cup rankings in 2004 and has placed second at Escape From Alcatraz and other top US non drafting races. Has been struggling to regain her best form until winning Vineman 70.3 last weekend. Had a 4th here in 2007 behind Emma Snowsill, Julie Dibens and Rebeccah Wassner, so she likes the course.
Sarah Groff (USA) 7-1
The USA's top women points getter in ITU World Cup racing last year has not regained her 2008 form – yet. Had a lousy bike at Minneapolis, but her 3rd best 36:51 run shows glimmers of hope for a podium.
