Gold Coast Men’s Odds

September 11, 2009

Late odds for the Elite Men in the Dextro Energy World Championship Series Grand Final on Australia’s Gold Coast.

Alistair Brownlee (GBR) 2-1

Alistair Brownlee at 21 has the young scholarly mien of a Harry Potter. With his astounding perfect record in the World Championship Series this year and running as if with the wings of Mercury, it’s not too far fetched to imagine that Brownlee has studied magic at Hogwarts and it’s all a game of Quiddich to him. That’s why he’s the favorite. All reasons to doubt are illogical, but sport is fueled by passion and I think Brownlee, proven vulnerable with his loss to Gomez at Europeans, is indeed human.

Jan Frodeno (GER) 3-1

Why not Gomez for second choice? Frodeno as proven in the Olympics is a big day player and, with his bike breakaway win at Yokohama, has the best run and is peaking at the right time.

Kris Gemmell (NZL) 7-2

This guy should be frustrated after losing finish line sprints at Hy-Vee and Yokohama. With one of the best runs and even better sprints in the game, Gemmell should bottle his frustration and bring it to the Gold Coast.

Javier Gomez (ESP) 4-1

By all logic, Gomez should be co-favorite after his win at Europeans. That marked a season long ride from injury back to his world beater form. But, Gomez proved at the 2007 Worlds, Olympics, Madrid, Hy-Vee, and Kitzbuhel he has no 5th gear and must break away halfway through the run. This won’t be possible with the hungry field on a flat bike course.

Simon Whitfield (CAN) 5-1

Speaking of Mr. Clutch… Whitfield won the 2000 Olympics, almost stole the 2008 Olympics, won Commonwealth Games, took top men at Life Time, and crunched the $200,000 top prize at Hy-Vee this year in the middle of post-Olympic slump. At 34, still has great run and the craftiest sense of timing and a 6th gear in a dash for the line.

Steffen Justus (GER) 6-1

Took 5th at Tongyeong, 4th at Hamburg and 2nd at London. Connect the dots and this German seems inevitable at Gold Coast. Thanks goodness sport isn’t numerology. But that Tim DeBoom, didn’t he go 3-2-1-1 at Kona?

Maik Petzold (GER) 13-2

This formerly unknown German is only a sliver less impressive than fellow Deutschlander Justus with his 4th at Madrid, 3rd at Washington DC, 4th at Kitzbuhel and 6th at Hamburg. But his dots are headed in the wrong direction – 10th at Yokohama

Courtney Atkinson (AUS) 7-1

This guy started off 2009 with two World Cup wins and a second over Gomez at Madrid and was aiming at a home country WCS win big time. But niggling injuries and bugs have flattened off his rising curve. While home town fire may propel him, Atkinson would benefit much more by an early season World Championship finale.

Brad Kahlefeldt (AUS) 15-2

Bad luck struck Kahlefeldt, too, as he dreamed of a win on home Aussie soil. He started 2009 like house afire with photo finish 2nd at Tongyeong and was looking stellar with a close second at Hy-Vee and a 2nd at Hamburg. But, like Rutger Beke, Kahlefeldt stuck his bare foot into his spokes in T2 at London and is just recovering full mobility. Only chance is to scare the field like El Cid riding dead but roped into his saddle into the battle.

Laurent Vidal (FRA) 8-1

This year’s Frederic Belaubre (off form with injury) is the most consistent triathlete in the WCS series after Brownlee. Scored 8th at Tongyeong, 7th at Washington DC, 3rd at Kitzbuhel, 5th at London, 4th at Yokohama. Has a great run, but so far no killer instinct.

Jarrod Shoemaker (USA) 9-1

Jarrod has many top three runs, but so far only one top three finish – a spectacular win at Hamburg. Now ranked 7th in points, Shoemaker has proved he can hang on the bike with the fast guys and occasionally outrun them all. His 6th, 12th, 8th, 5th, 1st, and 6th place finishes in big races speaks consistency but his first big win carries with it the threat of a Grand Final podium.

Tim Don (GBR) 11-1

If he can revive the magic of his 2006 ITU World Championship, Don can don the winner’s cape again. But 9th places at Tongyeong and London don’t seem to augur a return to glory at the Gold Coast.

Bevan Docherty (NZL) 10-1

This Kiwi should be favored to medal. The 2004 ITU World Champion and Olympic silver and bronze medalist started 2009 with a photo finish win at Tongyeong. But DNFs at Washington and Hy-Vee and modest 5th places at Hamburg and Yokohama do not presage Docherty has returned to his brilliant best.

Daniel Unger (GER) 13-1

Brilliant 2007 ITU World Championship win and 6th at Beijing seemed to indicate good things. But 15th at Washington has been his best this year.

Sven Riederer (SUI) 14-1

Swiss star broke away with Hamish Carter and Bevan Docherty at Athens Olympics for a bronze but has been hot and cold since. Riederer’s 6th at Kitzbuhel was his high water mark this year.

Alexandr Brukhankov (RUS) 15-1

Took 7th at Tongyeong, 6th at Madrid, 3rd at Hamburg seemed headed in the right direction. But 16th at London cooled the buzz for Gold Coast.

Matt Reed (USA) 20-1

Proved once again he can kill all opposition with a dominating win at non-drafting Chicago. In 2008, proved he can rise to the occasion in draft legal racing with a 5th at Vancouver Worlds. Can do it again but this season has been up and down and not up to his capabilities – so far.