2022 IRONMAN World Championship – Men’s Pro Preview
With the split to a two-day format for the IRONMAN World Championships this year, the professional men were selected to take the traditional Saturday in October date. It is arguably one of the deepest fields to ever toe the line in Kona, and it would be even deeper if not for some ill-timed injuries or illnesses that are keeping big names like Jan Frodeno and Alistair Brownlee from toeing the line.
Still, it's an abundance of talent that should produce some dramatic fireworks on course. And with an early forecast showing an 86% chance of rain and a high temperature in the upper 80s, the weather gods may play just as big a role in the end result as the talent gathered here.
The Overwhelming Favorites
The discussion has to start with the Norwegian superstars, right? That being said, given the distance, we give the edge to Kristian Blummenfelt for standing atop the podium come Saturday afternoon. With his prodigious resume – 2020 Olympic champion, 2021 World Triathlon Champion, 2021 Ironman World Champion at St. George, 1st at the Pho3nix Sub7 Project in 6:44:25, 1st at the 2019 World Triathlon Series Grand Final, 2nd at the 2022 PTO Canadian Open, and a world-best 7:21:12 in his Ironman debut at 2021 Ironman Cozumel – is there any doubt about his chances at Kona?
There is some evidence that Blummenfelt is human. For your consideration: his 10th place finish at the season opening Dubai 70.3. A clumsy time-wasting start to his swim, an off-form bike leg and a flat at the 60-kilometer mark did him in. And at the PTO Canadian Open, Blummenfelt temporarily fell prey to the hot and humid weather to walk and stop long enough to fall 2 minutes behind fellow Norwegian Gustav Iden. Still with a few km to go, Blummenfelt made an impressive resurgence to nearly claw back victory.
Gustav Iden
While it is hard to come up with rivals to Blummenfelt given his track record over the past three years, countryman Gustav Iden has proven he can top his fellow Norwegian head-to-head, winning the PTO Canadian Open in Edmonton. At Kona with its everlasting heat and humidity and wind, that may augur a slim advantage for Iden.
While his record is not as overwhelming as Blummenfelt, Iden still has put together an impressive race resume. He is a two-time 70.3 World Champion, beating Alistair Brownlee in 2019 with a 3:52:35 finish at Nice, and taking the 2021 70.3 World Championship in a 3:37:13 finish. And don't forget he also won his Ironman debut in Florida in 7:48:05. He's also strung together win's at Challenge's Championship, and won the inaugural PTO Championship at Daytona in 2020.
It's a near certainty, barring mechanical failure, that these two will be on the podium somewhere on Saturday.
The Spoilers
Lionel Sanders
Probably the most-talked about professional on our reader forum, Sanders seems poised for another run at the title in 2022. Earlier this year he took second at the IRONMAN World Championships in St. George, 4:47 behind Blummenfelt. He won his match at Collins Cup with the 3rd best overall time. And in August he won Ironman 70.3 Mont Tremblant in 3:48:02. Going back further, in 2021 he took 2nd in the Zwift Battle Royale against Jan Frodeno. And he finished second to Iden at IM Florida.
We would look past his performance at the PTO US Open earlier this month. It seems like an older, wiser Sanders has emerged. And that makes him more dangerous than ever.
Patrick Lange
It feels strange to put a two-time world champion in the spoiler region of this preview. Yet that's the standard that's been put forth over the last few years. Lange made a big splash by breaking Mark Allen’s Kona run record in 2016 with a 2:39:45 split, running himself onto the podium in third. Next up, he won Kona in 2017 with a 8:01:40 time which included another 2:39:59 run. He then defended his crown in 2018 with a dominating 7:52:30 finishing time and a 4:11 margin of victory.
Lange, however, has endured some tougher times since his 2018 victory. That includes this year, when he suffered a shoulder injury in a bike crash shortly before the IRONMAN World Championships in St. George. But, showing he is back on his game, Lange took 2nd behind Magnus Ditlev at this year’s Challenge Roth.
Magnus Ditlev
Ditlev has burst into the limelight the last two years. In October 2021, he crossed the finish line first at 70.3 Cartagena, then race officials DQ’d him for alleged course cutting. With further review in the next few days, that ruling was reversed and his first big win stood. In other 2021 action, he won 70.3 Cascais, and placed 2nd at CLASH Daytona, and placed 8th at 70.3 Worlds.
This year, he's upped his game to now be ranked #2 by the PTO. He took 2nd at IRONMAN Texas in April, and then put together an authoritative victory at Challenge Roth this summer, defeating Patrick Lange in the process. He most recently placed 2nd at the PTO US Open, outsprinting Sam Long for the spot and finishing a scant 42 seconds behind victor Collin Chartier.
Joe Skipper
Originally not planning on attending, Skipper wound up making a rather late decision to roll the dice in Kona. We think that's going to be a smart move for him given his consistent performances over the last few seasons, even when the going gets tough. For example, an off-form swim and mechanical mishaps at the beginning of IRONMAN Wales this year saw him more than 25 minutes back of the lead. Skipper then gritted his teeth, clawing back time in the second-half of the bike and finished with a 2:45 marathon to claim an unbelievable victory.
Skipper has also beaten some of the big names head-to-head. In 2021 he won IRONMAN Chattanooga and finished 8 minutes ahead of Lionel Sanders, and he also won IRONMAN UK, 8:42 ahead of Sam Laidlow. In 2020, he won IRONMAN New Zealand in 7:54:18 with a course record 2:43:07 run split. In 2019 he won IRONMAN Florida in 7:46:28, 2:01 ahead of Ben Hoffman.
The only question we have is whether or not that effort at Wales will cost him late in the day on Saturday. But given his race pedigree and ability to suffer (in 2020 he set a British biking record covering 326 miles in 12 hours), he's hard to ignore.
The American Hopefuls
Ben Hoffman
Probably the best American podium hopeful, Hoffman has a track record of success in blistering conditions. In Kona alone he's finished as high as 2nd, along with three other top 10 finishes (two fourths and a ninth) here. He was also 10th earlier this season at IRONMAN World Championships in St. George, a mere two weeks after a big win at IRONMAN Texas, which included a head-to-head battle with Magnus Ditlev.
Hoffman has run pedigree, with a 2:36:09 to his name in a winning performance at IRONMAN Florida in 2019 and a 2:40 marathon in his winning performance in Texas. If he's well positioned coming off the bike, he is just as dangerous as Lange.
Collin Chartier
Chartier is on a breakout path over the last two months. He earned his way into Kona with a last-minute qualifier win at IRONMAN Mont-Tremblant. In the process he ran a 2:45 marathon and defeated Josh Amberger. Proving that he's ready for prime-time, Chartier took the inaugural PTO US Open in Dallas, beating out Ditlev and Sam Long in the process.
He may have peaked just at the right time.
Tim O'Donnell
The two-time podium finisher at the IRONMAN World Championships, O'Donnell has yet to show the he has recovered form following his heart attack during CLASH Miami in March 2021. That said, he has also maintained a very light schedule this year going into Kona. He earned his starting slot with a third place at IRONMAN Des Moines in June, and then placed second at 70.3 Santa Cruz, less than a minute behind Eric Lagerstrom just under a month ago.
The years where he has finished well at Kona, he's raced lightly that year. This is his lightest schedule since 2019, when he finished second.
Chris Leiferman
Leiferman's 2022 has been relatively quiet since his fourth place finish at the World Championships race in St. George, with solid but unspectacular races at the Collins Cup and the PTO US Open. That being said, the back half of his 2021 and early 2022 did not suggest that he was going to unleash a near-podium worthy effort in St. George. It's just his second trip to Kona — and the last time he was here he finished 10th.
Rudy Von Berg
Von Berg seemed ready to become the next great American hope in 2019, finishing every race that year on the podium — including third at the 70.3 World Championships. Yet somehow, after a quiet 2020 and early 2021, he's flown a bit under the radar despite a 7-race span from mid-2021 to early 2022 where, again, he finished no lower than third. He's racing his second IM distance race here, earning his spot with an IM debut victory at IRONMAN France.
Matt Hanson
It's easy to say that Hanson has paid his island dues — in four trips here, he's finished no better than 33rd in Kona, with two DNFs to his name as well. But he has the type of warm weather performance pedigree and running prowess that points towards finally having a good year here. He's the three-time IRONMAN Texas champion and has run as fast as 2:34 off the bike. It feels like this is the year he cracks into the Top 10.
Other Contenders
Braden Currie
This year the former adventure racer took 3rd in St. George, rounding out the podium behind Blummenfelt and Sanders after leading until deep on the run. In 2021 he won Ironman New Zealand. In 2019 he was 7th at Kona with a 2:46:25 marathon. His best finish here was in 2015 – 5th place in 8:04:41 with a 2:53:39 marathon. Just for old times’ sake, earlier this year Currie raced and won the Coast-to-Coast Humara [New Zealand] adventure race.
Sebastian Kienle
Can we get one more surprise from Kienle? A true Hall of Famer, Kienle has a great World Championship record – bronze in 2013, gold in 2014, silver in 2016 and bronze in 2019. And don't forget he's a former two-time 70.3 World Champion, either.
Kienle's raced somewhat sparingly this season since announcing he would be retiring this season, with a couple of mid-pack performances at the two PTO events and a 5th in Zell am See. We'd love to see one more attacking race from him.
Daniel Baekkegard
Baekkegard's 2021 was the stuff of envy: five races, two wins, three thirds. His 2022 has been slightly more up-and-down: a second in Dubai, and a win at Elsinore are the lone podiums. However, he took 7th at the St. George IRONMAN World Championship race and had the sixth fastest time at the Collins Cup.
Cameron Wurf
A former Olympic rower and current pro cyclist, Wurf took up triathlon in 2018 and quickly made a name for himself in swim-bike-run. In 2019 he won Cannes International, Ironman Australia, Ironman Emilia Romagna in 7:46:54 with a 2:45:02 marathon, and 5th at the Ironman World Championship with a 4:14:45 bike split. Late results keep getting better as Wurf won 2021 Ironman Copenhagen in 7:46:06 and late this year won Ironman Vittoria Gasteiz in 7:53:29.
Wurf holds the record for fastest bike split at Kona – 4:09:06. Given the current forecast, that does not seem in jeopardy this year.
Start List
M1 Kristian Blummenfelt
M2 Lionel Sanders
M3 Braden Currie
M4 Chris Leiferman
M5 Florian Angert
M6 Patrick Lange
M7 Sebastian Kienle
M8 Gustav Iden
M9 Tim O’Donnell
M10 Ben Hoffman
M11 Cameron Wurf
M12 Leon Chevalier
M14 Daniel Bækkegård
M15 Sam Laidlow
M16 David McNamee
M17 Joe Skipper
M19 Rudy Von Berg
M20 Matt Hanson
M21 Denis Chevrot
M22 Reinaldo Colucci
M23 Max Neumann
M25 Collin Chartier
M26 Kyle Buckingham
M27 Tim Van Berkel
M28 Nick Kastelein
M29 Jan Van Berkel
M30 Kenneth Vandendriessche
M31 Ivan Tutukin
M32 Magnus Ditlev
M33 Bradley Weiss
M34 Kyle Smith
M35 Pieter Heemeryck
M36 Kristian Hogenhaug
M37 Sam Appleton
M38 Clement Mignon
M39 Jesper Svensson
M40 Andre Lopes
M41 Matt Trautman
M42 Robert Wilkowiecki
M43 Robert Kallin
M44 Mathias Peterson
M45 Michael Weiss
M47 Luciano Taccone
M48 Arnaud Guilloux
M49 Josh Amberger
M50 Maurice Clavel
M51 Igor Amorelli
M52 Henrik Goesch
M53 Andreas Dreitz
M54 Matt Burton
M55 David Plese
