2022 IM 70.3 Worlds – Men’s Pro Predictions
It’s the last piece of the long-course championship puzzle with the men’s field for the IRONMAN 70.3 World Championship. This year has featured an abundance of fantastic racing, from the 2021 IRONMAN World Championships held here in St. George earlier this year, the sub7/8 Project, the two new PTO World Tour events, the ever-popular Challenge Roth, and of course the return to Hawaii for the 2022 IRONMAN World Championships.
It is this race that is suffering a little from being at the tail end of the year — many of the top racers from Hawaii are skipping this contest on an incredibly challenging 70.3 course. That said, the Norwegians look to continue their dominance atop IRONMAN branded events. Can anybody stop them?
Podium Favorites
Kristian Blummenfelt
Blummenfelt comes first if only because his resume remains slightly more prestigious than fellow countryman Gustav Iden. He's won world championships at multiple distances, an Olympic gold medal, and was the defending IRONMAN World Champion going into this year's return to Hawaii. You could make the argument that the only blemish on his resume was finishing on the podium in his Kona debut instead of winning.
The standards are mighty, mighty high. But his 2nd place (to Iden) at the PTO Canadian Open and finishing 3rd in Kona have slightly damaged the air of invincibility around Blummenfelt.
Still, this is not Kona. And there are multiple factors that should give Blummenfelt the edge coming into this race. First, an IRONMAN World Championship win at this venue. Second, he has consistently great runs – 2:38:00 at Ironman Worlds at St. George, 2:39:20 at Kona, a race-best 29:34 10k run at Tokyo, and a 2:35:23 at 2021 Cozumel. Third, his bike usually distances the field whether on flat ground or attacking 7,300 feet of climbing at St. George. Fourth, his strong, never give up mindset – note his resurgence after stopping to recover then making up most of 2-minute deficit to Iden in Edmonton, or his scorched Earth attempt to pass Sam Laidlow in the closing miles in Kona. In both cases. he just ran out of real estate. And lastly, weather is on his side — expect temperatures in the upper 60s for the run on race day.
Factors against: He ran himself into the medical tent in Kona. And maybe Iden and his undefeated hat just have his number.
But we wouldn't bet on it.
Gustav Iden
Ultimately, we think it will come down to Kona recovery between these two that will determine who wins on Saturday. Iden has the stronger 70.3 resume, with multiple wins at this distance and two 70.3 World Championships to his name. Iden also seeks to become the first male reigning 70.3 and IRONMAN World Champion since Jan Frodeno took both titles in 2015.
The last time Iden didn't win a middle distance race he started? December 2018 in Bahrain. At some point the run has to end. We think the combination of the field here and the fact 70.3 Worlds comes after Kona finally spells the end of the Iden Lucky Hat era. But Iden will go down swinging. He'll be near the front late.
Sam Long
While the field is packed with talent, we think that Long isn't a long shot to win over the dynamic Norwegian duo. It helps that Long focused exclusively on 70.3 Worlds this year and will be one of the freshest racers on the start line Saturday. Long has been consistent and strong for the past year, with multiple wins in the middle distance and a strong 3rd at the PTO US Open in Dallas, only being passed by Magnus Ditlev in the closing meters.
Long also has had multiple successes on this course — second in the 2021 IRONMAN 70.3 World Championships and second to Lionel Sanders in the regular 70.3 event here. The recipe is there for a win. It would not be a shock to see him atop the podium.
Magnus Ditlev
This Dane has burst upon the tri scene like a comet the past two years. He took 2nd at Ironman Texas with a closing 2:40 marathon, bested only by a fast-closing Ben Hoffman. He won Challenge Roth in 7:35:48 after a 2:40:22 closing run. And he out dueled Long for second place at the PTO US Open, missing the win by under a minute. Ditlev also overcame a penalty at the IRONMAN World Championships earlier this month and finished in 8th place.
However, Ditlev has raced more than others in this podium contender section. He, too, like Blummenfelt, suffered more than others in the heat in Kona and may still have residual fatigue to fight on the day. We'd expect that he'll try to make moves on the bike. It's just a matter of whether he can hang on.
Dark Horse Candidates
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Jackson Laundry
Laundry put his name on the map in 2021 when he placed 5th at the Ironman 70.3 World Championship. He upped his game in 2022 with a win at Ironman 70.3 Oceanside, highlighted with a 1:10:10 half marathon and beating names like Lionel Sanders, Alistair Brownlee, and Von Berg in the process. Since then it’s been a relatively quiet year — outside of the Top 10 at both PTO Opens and a 17th best time at the Collins Cup. Still, given a challenging course, Laundry has the potential to put it all together.
Rudy Von Berg
Von Berg arrived knocking at the door at the top tier of long course triathletes with a 3rd place in 3:56:45 at the 2019 Ironman World Championship 70.3 in Nice – just behind Gustav Iden and Alistair Brownlee. The son of a former pro and famed age group contender, Rudy recently signed on with coach Luc Van Lierde, the man who held the Ironman Hawaii record at 8:04:08 from 1996 to 2011.
In 2021 Von Berg took 3rd at CLASH Daytona, took 4th at Ironman 70.3 St. George, won Ironman 70.3 Les Sables d’Olonne with a closing 1:11:58 run. Last year Von Berg won Ironman France at Nice in 8:24:25, and took 3rd at Ironman 70.3 Oceanside. With high hopes for his Ironman Hawaii debut, Von Berg was disappointed with his 20th place, but remains undaunted and optimistic for the future.
Casper Stornes
Back when the Norwegian wave was young, Stornes led teammates Kristian Blummenfelt and Gustav Iden in a Norwegian men’s 1-2-3 sweep at 2018 ITU Bermuda. In 2018 he placed 2nd at Tokyo WTCS, and won three times at the Middle East Championship in Bahrain. More recently, he won the 2021 70.3 Nice and took 11th at the Tokyo Olympics. Recent reports have Stornes back in top form and ready to remake the Norwegian Blummenfelt and Iden duo into a Norwegian triad.
Stornes meanwhile lamented his own performance at Tokyo after claiming victory at IRONMAN 70.3 Nice on the Sunday before the Olympics. “I’m still very disappointed.”
Stornes also displayed regret about his own performances: “I think I would have won in Frankfurt but for the nutrition. So the other guys should be happy I lost it.” If he has this figured out — look out.
Aaron Royle
After taking 26th at the Tokyo Olympics, Royle has focused on long course. In 2021 he took 2nd behind Magnus Ditlev of Denmark at Ironman 70.3 Portugal with a 1:11:14 run. This year he won Challenge Wales, placed 3rd at the PTO Canadian Open (which earned him a start at the Collins Cup) and 7th at the PTO US Open.
Like many other athletes in this category, Royle comes in significantly fresher than the competition having not raced since the US Open. On the difficult St. George terrain that could prove pivotal on the run.
The Best of the Rest
Ben Kanute
Like Von Berg, Kanute made a career breakthrough at the Ironman 70.3 World Championship. In 2017 Kanute opened a 4-minute lead on the bike before ITU multiple Olympic distance World Champion Javier Gomez passed Kanute midway through the run. On his way to a race-best 1:10:29 split, Gomez finished in 3:49:44 with a 1:20 margin on Kanute, who held on to silver while posting a 1:16:23 half marathon.
Since then, Kanute placed 4th at 2018 70.3 Worlds, won 2019 Ironman 70.3 Oceanside, took 2nd at 2021 Ironman 70.3 Texas, and won 2021 Ironman 70.3 Oceanside. This year, Kanute took 3rd at CLASH Miami.
Matthew Hanson
Hanson’s favorite race must be Ironman Texas which he won three times. Other highlights include 2020 Ironman Florida where his 2:41:57 marathon brought him home 2nd in 7:55:02. This year Hanson won Ironman Des Moines with a 2:49:01 marathon which brought him to the finish in 7:56:47. Hanson since had an unspectacular 22nd at the PTO Canadian Open and a 15th at Ironman Hawaii after a 2:45:33 run brought him home in 8:04:54.
Clement Mignon
In 2021 he won three middle distance events – Gerardmer XL, Alpe d’Huez, and Andorra 70.3. This year Mignon has been incredibly busy — he took 2nd at Challenge Mogan Gran Canaria, 3rd at Ironman Germany in 7:58:42, 5th at the World Triathlon Long Distance World Championship, and defended his Gerardmer XL title. He also finished inside the Top 10 earlier this month at the IRONMAN World Championships. That much racing has to catch up at some point.
Our Predictions
Timothy Carlson
1. Kristian Blummenfelt
2. Sam Long
3. Gustav Iden
Ryan Heisler
1. Sam Long
2. Magnus Ditlev
3. Kristian Blummenfelt
