2023 Women’s IM World Championship Pro Picks
Well, we’ve finally made it. After the crazy months of August and September, and crowning World Champions at nearly every distance we have, we’re here. It’s Kona time. It’s the women’s IRONMAN World Championship.
In part due to the overall 2023 race schedule, the women’s professional field on paper is fresher and deeper than the men’s field we saw tackle Nice in September. And it’s looking like it will be a spectacular show this Saturday, with more than 2,100 women on the start list for the race in total.
Here’s who we expect to be contending for the women’s professional championship on Saturday. And at the end, our collective podium picks.
Favorites
Lucy Charles-Barclay: It’s impossible to ignore Charles-Barclay’s history here. She’s finished second four times. Each time it’s taken an incredible run effort in order to beat her — with the exception of one of Daniela Ryf’s wins, the winner had to use the best marathon in the field to wind up overcoming Charles-Barclay’s swim and bike prowess. And perhaps the biggest change heading into Kona this year is that Charles-Barclay is fresh, and she’s running faster than ever this season. That could be the dangerous combination that sees her finally take the top step. Her swim is clearly still top level — she won the Ho’ala practice swim on Sunday.
Daniela Ryf: It’s been feast or famine for Ryf in 2023. On the positive side of the ledger are two wins — Challenge Roth and 70.3 Switzerland. On the negative side? A DNF at the PTO European Open and a pedestrian ninth place at 70.3 Worlds. And recent Kona history seems to be against the five time World Champion — an 8th place result last year, and an even poorer 13th in 2019.
But this is a woman that’s won over 95% of her professional starts at this distance. She’s still won more than half of the IRONMAN World Championships she’s started. The question will be where she is coming out of the water — if she’s too far back, it’ll be harder than ever to make in-roads with the firepower up the road.
Anne Haug: The former World Champion has arguably the best recent resume of anyone. In her last ten starts, she’s hasn’t finished off the podium. In fact, you have to go back to 2018 to find the first non-podium result (excluding the wonky results for the Collins Cup). It’s an impressive run of consistency for the strongest runner in the field. That also means she’s finished on the podium for all of her IRONMAN World Championship starts. It’s a stretch to believe that she won’t do it again here, barring some mechanical malady.
Laura Philipp: Philipp proved last year that a bike penalty may not be insurmountable in the women’s field, earning a position foul on the outbound leg and still powering her way to a fourth place finish. Given that we’re expecting near perfect weather conditions again this year, assuming that she’s in similar form, Philipp could be a disruptive force on the field — especially if she’s in similar position out of the water to Ryf, and can work with Ryf to bridge up to the expected swim leader Charles-Barclay.
The Wild Card
Taylor Knibb: It’s really hard to throw the second ranked pro woman in the Wild Card slot. But here we are. Knibb has multiple strikes against her contending this weekend. First and foremost, it’s her first IRONMAN. Not just first IM World Championship. No, we mean first full distance race. And it’s hard to win in your debut, simply because there is just so much that can possibly go wrong in a race that is this long.
And then it’s her first Kona. And if tradition tells us anything, it’s that you simply don’t win your debut IRONMAN World Championship appearance. Of course, tradition can occasionally be thrown out the window — Chrissie Wellington and Chelsea Sodaro, for example. But Knibb’s biggest limiting factor appears to be her handle on nutrition — can she get it right on the biggest stage of them all? She’s admitted to having difficulty with it, even in her IRONMAN 70.3 World Championship wins.
Ultimately I think it’s going to be an all or nothing day for Knibb. She either wins by a wide margin, or she’s going to be walking a lot after climbing up Palani.
Other Contenders
Chelsea Sodaro: It feels wrong to not include the defending World Champion in the favorites. But given Sodaro’s even more extreme results in 2023 than Ryf — two podiums and two DNFs — it’s hard to count her as a favorite. But maybe that’s just the way she likes it, flying just under the radar until it’s time to unleash hell. And unleash hell she did last year here, on a day that should feature a near replica for weather conditions. She swam close enough, rode fast, and then ran over six minutes faster than anybody else.
I wouldn’t be shocked to be eating crow come late Saturday for not putting her atop the favorites.
Sarah True: True is one of the lightest raced athletes coming into Kona, having three starts under her belt this year. One of those includes winning in her return to Frankfurt, the site of her uncomfortable-to-watch meltdown in 2019. She also backed that up with a top 10 in Singapore, with its extremely hot and humid conditions. Kona this weekend should feel much more like northern New England by comparison, with current forecasted highs below 80 degrees and with mild winds. True should be part of the early mix on the bike, and assuming that she makes the right moves early, could find herself close to the front coming onto the run. Her 2:54 IM run PR would have her second only to Sodaro’s run, projecting off of last year.
Kat Matthews: On impressive form following her second place at 70.3 Worlds, Matthews is here because of history — it’s her first Kona. She’s been remarkably consistent in World Championship events, with a fourth and two seconds to her name. But yes, we believe in the mythos of the island around these parts. There’s a reason why it’s referred to the exception, not the rule, when winning in your debut here. I think she has a strong chance to crack the top five, but won’t quite make the podium. (And yet another opportunity for me to be wrong.)
People I’m Probably Discounting At My Peril
In no particular order, Lisa Norden, Sarah Crowley, Skye Moench, and Fenalla Langridge all have an outstanding chance of making me look more like a moron than normal. Danielle Lewis will probably find a way to overcome her massive swim deficit and finish inside the top 10. Jocelyn McCauley has the ability to cause some chaos in the swim and bike.
But for one reason or another I’m not seeing them in my top five.
My Podium Picks
Lucy Charles-Barclay
Daniela Ryf
Laura Philipp
