2010 Ironman Hawaii Men’s Odds
Despite the polished excellence of Craig Alexander, a horde of fearless contenders believe they can swim bike and run to glory. The contenders include Rasmus Henning, Andreas Raelert, Chris Lieto, Chris McCormack, Eneko Llanos, Andy Potts, Marino Vanhoenacker, Dirk Bockel, Terenzo Bozzone, Timo Bracht…
You get the picture. It's a wide open shootout in the Kona Corral
Craig Alexander, 37 (AUS) 5-2
Once you establish yourself as one of the greatest clutch performers and best-prepared professionals in Ironman history, one of only eight men to win this race two or more times in its 33-year history, it's a natural inclination is to look for chinks in the armor. Especially when the man has dead aim on joining Dave Scott (6 IMH wins) Mark Allen (6), and Peter Reid (3) as the only men to win 3 or more Ironman Hawaii titles — and leave behind certified 2-win greats Scott Tinley, Luc Van Lierde, Tim DeBoom and Normann Stadler.
You might start with Alexander's age – 37 – Mark Allen's age at his last Kona win, an age he indicates left him with no more gas in the tank after his 1995 come-from-behind win against Hellriegel. But then you would see Crowie's near-perfect performances in 2007 (2nd) 2008 (win) and 2009 (win) at Kona and his great 2010 season. With the exception of a crash-DNF at St. Croix and 3rd place at the Olympic distance Life Time Fitness (still has respectable short course speed) Alexander was perfect in 2010 with wins at a raft of 70.3s including Muskoka, Singapore, Geelong, Boise, Rev3 Quassy and Racine.
But more than taking home 70.3 cash and bonuses, Alexander continued to improve. shoring up his bike which left him nearly 10 minutes down at Kona last time out. And his smooth run, his ace in the hole, was fine tuned some more. His attention to nutrition, pacing, form and all manner of detail shored him against the little things that plague even the best of triathletes. And so he remains the favorite against a rising tide of improving Ironman contenders.
Rasmus Henning, 35 (DEN) 3-1
You might attempt to ignore Henning's 5th-best-ever Ironman-distance time winning Challenge Roth this summer in 7:52:36 as irrelevant because it was achieved on a fast course in Germany with mild temperatures. And you might see Henning's 46:57 swim in Roth's canals and his 2:39:43 run and say OK, nice job, but then examine his 4:23:54 bike there and scoff that he was 10 minutes slower than Sebastian Kienle's record smashing effort. But then you ought to remember that this dashing Dane has a great record in the heat of high pressure races (two $200,000 wins at Hy-Vee) and that he feels quite comfortable in extremely high temperatures. Then remember that Henning placed 5th, just 8 minutes back of Crowie in his debut at Kona last year competing three weeks after breaking his right hand – which forced him to catch all his water bottles at 25 mph plus. The result of that situation was extreme pain in the hand and many dropped water bottles, which left him depleted in much needed hydration and calories. On paper, Henning has more horsepower and talent than Crowie. But in the indefinable qualities, that make an Hawaiian Ironman champion, he is still unproven.
Andreas Raelert, 34 (GER) 4-1
No less an expert observer than Mark Allen thought Raelert might be the man to upset Alexander's applecart.. "At the end of the race last year, there were only two men really running," said Allen. "Craig Alexander and Andreas Raelert were both fluid and flowing and running fast." Allen thinks that Raelert just was a few cups of fuel short and a few miles of base lacking in his Ironman Hawaii debut last year, lacks he thinks the German has taken care of in 2010.
Andreas's brother Michael, who took the Ironman 70.3 world by storm with dominating wins at Clearwater and every race at this distance this year, joined his elder brother in a 4-week training block before Kona and said simply: "I don't know if he will win, but Andy has never been as fit and strong and fast as he is right now. I do know he will have a great race at Kona."
Andreas Raelert arrives at Kona with a dominating win this year at Ironman Europe in Frankfurt and the memories of his close third place finish at Kona in 2009, a win at Ironman Arizona in 2008, a 2nd at Ironman 70.3 Worlds in 2008, a win at Ironman 70.3 Monaco in 2008, and a 6th place at the 2004 Olympics.
Eneko Llanos, 34 (ESP) 5-1
And why would Eneko Llanos not be a co-favorite at Kona? He won the $50,000 top prize at Abu Dhabi with its Ironman-length bike, and won the rugged, hilly, windy IM Lanzarote, beating two-time defending champ Bert Jammaer. Slight flaws — took 3rd at Roth behind Henning's near-record performance and he was 3rd at Wildflower and faded to 14th last year at Kona. But if he is on, Llanos has world beating talent — 3 wins at XTERRA Worlds, 2nd at Ironman Hawaii in 2008, the 2003 ITU long distance World championship title at Ibiza.
Chris Lieto, 38 (USA) 6-1
What can Lieto do for an encore after his heroic brave near win at Kona last year? Coach Matt Dixon says Lieto is a better cyclist and will save plenty of energy to improve his 3:02 Kona marathon last year – while still able to roar out from with another top-five-ever Kona bike. While all his chips are in the pot for Kona, Lieto has not been any slouch along the way, picking up 70.3 wins at Vineman, Buffalo Springs and Kansas, with a close loss to Lance Armstrong in an informal time trial, match race on the Queen K this spring.
Chris McCormack, 37 (AUS) 7-1
Do not write off the 2007 Kona Champion. he was 4th despite cramping troubles at Kona last year, and took a conservative 3rd at Frankfurt and 2ndf at Ironman 70.3 Austria in 2010. His light race schedule should bolster hopes the 37-year-old Macca will arrive with all his powers intact.
Dirk Bockel, 34 (LUX) 8-1
The 2008 Olympian who led off the bike at Beijing served notice that he is here to stay in the Ironman game with a 3rd at Ironman New Zealand in 2009, 7th place last year at Kona, and a close second to Eneko Llanos at Abu Dhabi. Has stayed consistent in 2010 in the 70.3 game with 3rd places at Antwerp and Florida and 5ths at New Orleans and Austria.. A favored training partner of the Raelerts at Clermont, Florida. Big – and fast.
Terenzo Bozzone , 25 (NZL) 9-1
T Bozz loves Ironman 70.3 races and scarfs them down like a starving man with a barrel of popcorn. The 70.3 world has been very, very tasty to still-young Terenzo, as his wins at Rhode Island, Eagleman, and Texas prove. On his bad days he took 2nd places at the Philippines, Rev3 Quassy, Buffalo Springs and New Orleans. Polishing his Ironman skills, he also took 2nd to Cam Brown at Taupo. The question remains: Can Bozzone apply his immense talent to the peculiar test presented by Kona? Last year he shook hands and got acquainted with Madame Pele4 and took 11th. His weak spot was closing the deal –he ran a 3:02:46.
Andy Potts, 34 (USA) 10-1
Pottsy broke into the Ironman winners circle at Coeur d'Alene this year and maintained his 70.3 skills with wins at New Orleans, Boulder, and his third straight at Timberman. Healthy and a year after his Chicago bike crash which left him off form and 9th at Kona last year, should crack the top 5.
Marino Vanhoenacker, 34 (BEL) 12-1
If Marino Vanhoenacker posted the 4th fastest Ironman distance clocking of all time this year at Ironman Austria, a few seconds faster than Rasmus Henning's time at Roth, why isn’t he a co-favorite? The talented 34-year-old Belgian has come to Kona with a shining resume that includes many Ironman wins, but his best at KIMH has been a 6th in 2006 and a 5th in 2007. Things just seem to go slightly wrong on the Queen K. This year a win at Ironman Malaysia in the heat, a 2nd at Antwerp 70.3 indicate that Vanhoenacker is consistent and less liable to bad luck and off days.
Cameron Brown, 38 (NZL) 13-1
The man won his 9th Ironman New Zealand this year and has consistent excellence in Kona – 2nd in 2001, 3rd in 2002, 3rd in 2003, 2nd in 2005, 8th in 2006. Bike is weak, run is consistent sub-2:50 and at 38 is not at all over the hill.
Timo Bracht, 35 (GER) 15-1
Timo came into Kona last year on a roll after at win at Frankfurt.. This year he comes with 2nd places at Frankfurt Challenge Barcelona and Tri Grand Prix.
Pete Jacobs, 29, (AUS) 17-1'
Last year Pete Jacobs came to Kona after 2nds at Challenge Roth and Ironman Oz and took 8th at Kona. This year he was second to Crowie at Aussie Long Course Champs and outran Terenzo Bozzone at Ironman 70.3 Philippines. A candidate for 1st out of the water, a first chase group biker and can run low 2:50s.
Ronnie Schildknecht, 31, (SUI) 27-1
Schildknecht took 4th at Kona in 2008 and faded to off-form 18th last year. Perennial winner of Ironman Switzerland and has good all around game.
Patrick Vernay, 37 (NCL) 20-1
Multiple Ironman Oz winner won Ironman Western Australia and Ironman Australia this year, Placed 10th at Kona in 2006 and 2007.
Luke Bell, 31, (AUS) 22-1
The young phenom who placed 5th at Ironman Hawaii in 2003 at the age of 24 has matured into a consistently excellent 70.3 racer with wins at Cancun last year and victories at Kansas (2009), Eagleman twice, Vineman, Buffalo Springs, Lake Stevens, California and Racine. He also has runner-up finishes at Ironmans Brazil, Australia, and New Zealand. Would like to better his Ironman resume soon.
Rutger Beke, 33, (BEL) 25-1
Along with Cam Brown one of the most consistent Kona performers in the last decade — 2003 (2nd) 2004 (5th) 2005 (4th) 2006 (4th) 2008 (3rd). . After ills and injuries, came back with a win at IM Cozumel late last year but 2010 has only brought 11th at Challenge Kraichgau and 10th at Antwerp 70.3. Loves Kona's heat and course like no other, not to be written off – especially after his back-from-the-seeming-dead 3rd place at Kona two years ago.
Martin Jensen, 27 (DEN) 28-1
Protege and training partner of Danish star Rasmus Henning has a podium at ITU long distance worlds in 2009 and a late summer long course podium this year. Great swimmer, superior biker, run is a work in progress.
Luke McKenzie, 29m (AUS) 29-1
Aussie broke through with wins at Ironman China and Ironman Brazil.
Tim DeBoom, 40, (USA) 30-1
Legend. Two-time Ironman Hawaii winner in 2001 and 2002. Took 4th here in 2007. Tremendous talent. Charisma. But enters Kona in 2010 after a 10th at Ironman 70.3 California, a win at Honu 70.3, and a 6th at Boulder 70.3
Fraser Cartmell, 28 (GBR) 33-1
Young Scotsman had a shocker 20th at 2009 Ironman 70.3 Worlds but won 2010 70.3s at South Africa, UK, took 4th at Abu Dhabi and won Ironman UK. is he ready for his Kona close-up?
Michael Lovato 37 (USA) 40-1
Three 9th place finishes at Kona. Is he the Fernanda Keller (6 IMH third place finishes) of 9th place?
