Abu Dhabi Men’s Odds 2011
There is $50,000 for the winner and lots of cash for the rest at the second Abu Dhabi International Triathlon. These men have the best chance.
Rasmus Henning, 35, Denmark — 7-2
Which Rasmus will show up at the 2011 Abu Dhabi season opener? The dashing Dane with ice water in his veins, who wins two $200,000 Hy-Vee top prizes in a row, comes within two minutes of setting an Iron distance record at Challenge Roth, and toughs out a broken hand to a 5th place in his Ironman Hawaii debut? Or the befuddled Kona sophomore who got caught behind some slow swimmers in Kailua Bay and fell off the back on the bike in his highly disappointing 2010 Kona? Methinks triathlon’s Prince of Denmark will choose to be the best he can be, which will be good enough to top this supercharged field.
Dirk Bockel, 34, Luxembourg – 4-1
Returning second place Abu Dhabi finisher and recent 7th and 8th place Kona finisher is built for Abu Dhabi’s flat-as-a-ruler, licorice-smooth roads that reward high horsepower. The man who led the 2008 Olympic bike will eat up Abu Dhabi’s over-distance 200km bike and has just enough 3k swim and 20k run juice to outlast all but one or two swifter runners.
Eneko Llanos, 33, Spain – 5-1
The returning Abu Dhabi champion with slight build looks like he would much prefer his excellent power-to-weight ratio would be applied to steep Alpine climbs like Lanzarote and not the Bonneville Salt Flats-style course like this. However, Llanos and Bockel and a few others benefited last year when a few of the bike studs were accidentally led off course – and Llanos and his killer run took fullest advantage, The Spaniard does well on medium to flat course as witnessed by his win at 2003 ITU long course Worlds in Ibiza, his seconds at 2008 Ironman Hawaii and 2009 Frankfurt.
Chris McCormack, 37, Australia – 6-1
The legendary two-time Kona champion, 1997 ITU Olympic distance champion, five-time Ironman Australia winner, and four-time sub-eight hours Iron distance performer seems to have the resume on his side. Plus the fact that his bike prowess allowed him to escape the terminator-style run of Craig Alexander at Kona. But a few things relegate Macca off the podium at Abu Dhabi: Number one, his advancing age as 38 is just around the bend. Number two, McCormack has gotten the most out of his dwindling tank of energy and adrenaline by withholding his season’s peak until the bigger races at the end if the year. Three, if his stated goal to try for the 20212 Olympics is to be believed, then it is unlikely he has worked his base miles hard enough to bike 200 kilometers with the studs.
Craig Alexander, 37, Australia – 7-1
Like Macca, Crowie is a superb tactician. Beyond that, he stands alone as the most professionally prepared triathlete on the planet. Alexander’s superb 2nd-1st-1st-4th string at Kona was built on a conservative bike that gave away 8-10 minutes to the desperately fast bikers – until he gave away that much gap to Raelert and McCormack, who then turned out 2:43 and 2:45 marathons. At Abu Dhabi, Alexander has less than half of Kona’s marathon to make up a similar gap on the run. Will Crowie surprise his foes and show first-tier bike strength and hang on for the win on the run? Close but no cigar, it says here.
Marino Vanhoenacker, 34, Belgium – 8-1
Marino had a breakout season in 2010, taking Ironman Malaysia, his 5th straight Ironman Austria, and most important, hanging on after a superb bike for a near perfect 3rd place finish at Kona. After a near Ironman distance world-best at Austria, Vanhoenacker has the horsepower to win Abu Dhabi. .
Jordan Rapp, 30, USA – 9-1
Jordan Rapp should have been satisfied simply to be alive after suffering near-fatal injuries when he was smashed by a four wheeled vehicle on a training ride just after his 7th place finish at Abu Dhabi last March. But the smart, savvy, good-in-all-three disciplines competitor proved he made a miracle comeback after his 4th place finish at Ironman Arizona last November. He did that on just six weeks of serious training and his fitness shortfall cost him 5 to 10 minutes on the run. It says here there should be no surprise if Rapp makes the podium,
Timo Bracht, 35, Germany – 21-2
This two-time Ironman Frankfurt winner topped off a good 2010 [6th at Kona] with a smashingly fast win at Ironman Arizona. Can he match that performance on a similarly flat Abu Dhabi course so early in the season? Probably not.
Faris Al-Sultan, 33, Germany – 11-1
The man who scored 3rd in 2004, 1st in 2005 and 3rd in 2006 at Kona, should be a natural on the flat course made for muscular bike studs. And thanks to his role as captain of Team Abu Dhabi, Al-Sultan has home court advantage after months of training on the pool;-table-flat roads. His 1st at Ironman Regensburg last year showed some of his 2005 fire, better than his 10th at Kona and 6th at Frankfurt that highlighted his 2009 season.
Sylvain Sudrie, 32, France – 12-1
His dashing Frenchman avenged his second place to Tim O’Donnell at the 2009 ITU long course worlds by taking their rematch at the 2010 ITU long course worlds in Immenstadt. Last year he also scored three half Ironman distance wins at Gerardmer, Barcelona and Miami. He has declared he has ambitions to win at Kona, so this would be a good place to start proving he has the endurance to back up his long term dreams.
Joe Gambles, 29, Australia – 13-1
Gambles was just 18th at Abu Dhabi last year, but his course record at Vineman 70.3, course record win at Ironman Wisconsin, 2nd to Michael Raelert at Wildflower, 2nd at the Rev 3 half and 4th at Clearwater 70.3 Worlds highlighted by a breakaway lead off the bike — show he can contend at Abu Dhabi.
Martin Jensen, 27, Denmark – 17-1
This young training partner of Rasmus Henning may be ready for his close-up. His strength is the bike and on his day can ride with anyone in this field. His 18th at Ironman Hawaii last year, 2nd at Ironman Louisville, and third place finishes at ITU long course worlds in 2008 and 2009 are just the beginning of what will be a brilliant career.
Luke Bell, 31, Australia – 18-1
Bell has won virtually every Ironman 70.3 race in the world including – Cancun, Kansas, Eagleman, Vineman, Cairns, Buffalo Springs, Lake Stevens, Tasmania, California, and the Spirit of Racine. His record at Ironman is close but no cigar with 2nd place finishes at New Zealand, Brazil, Australia and Lake Placid – as well as a very promising 5th at Kona in 2003. Great cyclist, on his best day he should have better than a prayer for the podium at Abu Dhabi.
Raynard Tissink, 37, South Africa – 19-1
The man who has 7 Ironman titles had a breakthrough 5th at Ironman Hawaii last year. Very good, but perhaps not quite brilliantly fast enough in any one discipline to stand atop the podium this weekend. Still, Tissink was one of four men to make the break on the bike with Macca last October in Kona.
Bjorn Andersson, 31, Sweden — 22-1
The burly Andersson is not famed for his run, but this excellent swimmer and the man many credit as the fastest cyclist in the sport has a puncher’s chance to break away and hold on for a podium spot – which he did at Wildflower in 2007.
Paul Ambrose, 26, Australia – 25-1
This young Aussie has been honing his skills as a training partner with Chris McCormack and is still growing into his prime. His wins at 2010 Ironman Louisville and Memphis in May, 2nds at Lake Stevens 70.3 last year and Cancun 70.3 in 2009, and 3rds at Rhode Island 70.3 in 2008 and 2010, and at California 70.3 in 2008, show he is on the verge of ascending to the next level. Can he take the nest step on Saturday?
Bryan Rhodes, 38, New Zealand – 30-1
The Kiwi with four Ironman wins, including a still-standing 8:10 CR at Malaysia and a 30-minute win at totally tough Ironman UK, has superb swim and excellent bike – on his best day.
Frederik Van Lierde, 31, Belgium – 33-1
A breakthrough win at Ironman 70.3 South Africa this year hints that the 14th place finisher at Kona last October and 5th place finisher at Abu Dhabi last March may be ready to take a step up.
Cameron Brown, 38, New Zealand – 35-1
The 10-time Ironman New Zealand champion with a 2nd and two 3rds at Kona would be much further up in the odds except for the fact that he aced his record extending 10th Ironman New Zealand victory last weekend in driving cold rain last weekend and should by all rights be thrashed after a 20-hour flight.
Stephen Bayliss, 32, Great Britain – 37-1
Bella Bayliss’s also very accomplished triathlete husband has two Ironman wins [UK and South Africa in 2008], three Ironman seconds [UK in 2009 and 2010 and Austria in 2008] and an Iron constitution that has kept him largely healthy in the face of a heavy race schedule.
Luke McKenzie, 30, Australia – 39-1
Has five Ironman wins [Brazil and China in 2010, Malaysia and Japan in 2009, and Japan in 2008]. And can really bike.
Tim Berkel, 26, Australia – 40-1
His best calling card is an 8:07 win in a rainy bike at Challenge Copenhagen in 2010, followed by his inaugural Ironman win at Busselton in 2008. Young and still improving.
Ben Hoffman, 26, USA – 42-1
Just coming into his own with wins at Branson 70.3 and Ironman Lake Placid, a 2nd at Ironman St. George in 2010 and a 3rd at Wildflower in 2007.
