Abu Dhabi Women’s Odds 2011
Some say this is the strongest women’s field outside of Kona, lured by the luxurious exotic Middle Eastern setting – and $50,000 first prize plus $65,000 more divvied up by the rest of the contenders. Maybe the short 3km swim, over-distance 200km bike and shorter than half marathon 20km run doesn’t match up with some top women’s strengths. Maybe a big test is too early in the season for some. Maybe some lack the horsepower required to get the most out of the long, straight and flat bike course.
But some like it hot.
Top women such as Julie Dibens, Caroline Steffen, Catriona Morrison, Leanda Cave, and Melanie McQuaid – who collectively own 15 World titles – love Abu Dhabi and welcome the competitive heat. Here are the women with the best shot at taking home the big prize.
Julie Dibens, 35, Great Britain – 5-2
It’s easier to say why she will take home her second straight $50,000 top prize than to guess why not. Reasons for: One, she won it last year – and she is a better endurance athlete now after rising to the challenge of Ironman Hawaii and taking third in her debut. Two, she is one of the three best cyclists in the sport – and she has 14 miles less of a run than Kona to compromise her 200km bike. Three, she was virtually unbeatable for most of 2010 – wins at Abu Dhabi, Wildflower, Rev3 Knoxville, Boise 70.3 and Boulder 70.3. Four, she is attacking this race with four months of rest after her last race – not at the end of an Ironman Hawaii, XTERRA Worlds, Ironman 70.3 triple in one month’s time.
Why not? Can’t see it.
Caroline Steffen, 32, Switzerland – 3-1:
Late blooming powerhouse, the woman known to her Team TBB teammates as Princess Xena, had a stunning 2010: Wins at Geelong 70.3, Singapore 70.3, Switzerland 70.3, ITU long course Worlds, Gerardmer long course, and Laguna Phuket 70.3. She fell a tad short at Ironman South Africa, Ironman Europe at Frankfurt and Ironman Hawaii – second places all. On a roll, she posted a 4:59 bike at Kona and a 5:01 bike at Frankfurt. The only competitor standing in her way is Dibens with her conservative 4:55 bike at Kona.
Catriona Morrison, 34, Great Britain – 4-1
This Scotswoman is tough as nails — when healthy.
She has won seven ITU World championship medals, mostly in duathlon. She took the ITU short course duathlon world championship silver in 2005 and gold in 2006 and 2010; won ITU world championship long course triathlon silver in 2006; and won the ITU long course duathlon world championship silver in 2006 and golds in 2007 and 2008.
Taking on more triathlons, Morrison was on fire in 2009. After a disappointing 7th at Ironman 70.3 Worlds in 2008, she scored a 2nd to a revived Natascha Badmann at New Orleans 70.3 with a second-best 1:22 run; beat Mirinda Carfrae handily while winning St. Croix 70.3, beat Julie Dibens (who beat Wellington at Boulder) winning UK 70.3, took second to Wellington at Timberman 70.3 while running 1:20, and took a strong 3rd in her Iron-distance debut at Quelle Challenge Roth in 2009, posting a strong 4:48 bike and a solid 3:03 run to finish in 8:48 and take third behind Wellington and Keat.
In 2010, she won Ironman Lanzarote after dropping 45 minutes due to mechanical woes on the bike. She won St. Croix 70.3. And, after taking ITU duathlon World Championship gold, she won the Basque Country Tri Grand Prix. Finally, fighting long standing Achilles woes, she dropped out of Ironman Hawaii.
What makes her more dangerous than ever is that she received treatment on her Achilles and is running pain-free for the first time in years.
Leanda Cave, 33, Great Britain – 5-1
Thanks in large part to new coach Siri Lindley, the 2002 ITU Olympic distance world champion had her best long course year ever. At the beginning of the year, she took 2nd at Abu Dhabi, 1st at Florida 70.3, 2nd at Vineman 70.3, 2nd at Tri Grands Prix in the UK and Spain. Then she put on a 6-week, late season blitz that would have shattered most of her less hardy competitors (and earlier, less prepared models of Leanda herself): 10th at Ironman Hawaii, 1st at Miami 70.3, 2nd at Ironman 70.3 Worlds and 3rd at Ironman Arizona.
Cave loves flat courses – as evidenced by her multiple wins at Florida 70.3 — and thrives in the heat.
Angela Naeth, 27, Canada – 8-1
This is the stealth candidate for the Abu Dhabi podium. Angela Naeth lost all of 2009 to stress fractures, but came back with an almost unnoticed bang in 2010. last year she took seven (count ‘em!) 2nd place finishes in half Iron distance triathlons– including Buffalo Springs, Austin, Boulder, Timberman, and Miami. She also set fastest bike split in 7 of her 14 races, including the loaded field at Oceanside 70.3 where she finished an uncharacteristic 8th. At Clearwater Worlds, her 6th fastest 2:17 bike was 2 minutes off the best despite going off course.
Rachel Joyce, 32, Great Britain – 9-1
Late blooming Great Brit had a remarkably mathematically consistent Ironman rise: 5th at Ironman Florida 2008 and in 2009 took 3rd at Ironman South Africa and 2nd at Ironman Lanzarote topped off by an impressive 6th in her 2009 Kona debut. In 2010, she was badly injured in a bike crash at Abu Dhabi and lost the first half of her season recovering. She got rolling late summer with a 2nd at Antwerp 70.3, but faded with 9th place finishes at the London Triathlon and at Wiesbaden 70.3. She got back on her groove with a 5th place at the Ironman World Championship then took another nosedive with an injury-DNF at Ironman Arizona. Joyce has the juice to podium at Abu Dhabi if she comes in healthy.
Amy Marsh, 33, USA – 13-1
After signing up with Brett Sutton’s Team TBB in 2009, Marsh won Buffalo Springs 70.3 and Ironman Wisconsin. In 2010, Marsh continued to improve with wins at Ironman China, Ironman Lake Placid, and the Rev3 Ironman, then wrapped up her stellar year with an 11th at Ironman Hawaii.
Belinda Granger, 40, Australia – 16-1
Has won 12 Iron-distance events in a great career which has hardly slowed at age 40 as proven by her win at Challenge Wanaka this January. Has a proven stellar bike [4:48 at Ironman Malaysia] which should fit her to Abu Dhabi like a glove.
Melanie McQuaid, 37, Canada – 19-1
Three-time XTERRA World Champion proved she could hold her own with the best of the pavement triathletes with a 5th at Wildflower, a 4th at Vineman 70.3, and a win at Lake Stevens 70.3 in 2010.
Joanna Lawn, 37, New Zealand – 20-1
This 7-time Ironman New Zealand champion and course record holder [9:14:32] has six top-10 finishes at Kona, crowned by 4th place finishes in 2005 and 2007 plus a 2005 win at Quelle Challenge Roth. The only reason her odds are so high is that, like Cameron Brown, she ran a gallant race in a driving rain at Ironman New Zealand last weekend, taking third behind Sam Warriner and Mirinda Carfrae.
Edith Niederfriniger, 39, Italy – 30-1
This consistent long course competitor has Ironman wins at France (2006) and Austria (2007), Ironman second places at Austria (2005), South Africa (2007 and 2008), China (2009) and Malaysia (2010), Ironman third places at Arizona (2008) and Cozumel (2009). On the biggest stage, she scored 14th (2007) and 15th (2009) at Ironman Hawaii.
Heather Gollnick, 34, USA – 33-1
This five-time Ironman champion is making a bit of a comeback after taking time out to organize Rev3 races.
