Abu Dhabi Odds: The Men
Let’s get one thing straight about the big splash and buzz created by the inaugural Abu Dhabi International Triathlon. While the men’s field contending for a $50,000 top prize and $115,000 for the top ten finishers is very, very good – for a variety of reasons it’s not nearly as deep and as competitive as the women’s field.
While there is little not to like about the field that includes two-time $200,000 Hy-Vee winner and ITU long course world championship medalist Rasmus Henning, former ITU long course world champion and 2008 Ironman Hawaii runner-up Eneko llanos, Ironman Hawaii 2005 champ Faris Al-Sultan, Ironman winners Rutger Beke, Ronnie Schildknecht, Jordan Rapp, Philip Graves, Ain Alar Juhanson, Richard Ussher, Bryan Rhodes and Raynard Tissink – there are several key figures missing. Craig Alexander, Chris McCormack, Chris Lieto, Andreas Raelert, Timo Bracht, Terenzo Bozzone, Cam Brown, Michael Raelert and Tim O’Donnell all decided to pass on the second largest long course prize purse in the sport for 2010 – trailing only Ironman Hawaii’s $500,000-plus purse and $115,000 top prize.
That said, the unique long course distances of 3k swim, 200k bike and 20k run provide an intriguing challenge that rewards a slightly different athletic profile from the classic Ironman and Ironman 70.3 champions. And given it’s longer than Ironman bike and shorter than 70.3 run, it promises a great litmus test for Ironman Hawaii hopefuls combined with a run that won’t take several months of recovery time.
The question is will this long, flat, horsepower-heavy bike course reward bike studs like Bjorn Andersson, Ain Alar Juhanson, Philip Graves? Or will the all-around excellence of Rasmus Henning, Eneko Llanos, Faris Al-Sultan, Rutger Beke Jordan Rapp and Ronnie Schildknecht prevail? The other wild card which makes accurate odds-making an impossible task is the early season date. It’s the first big test of the off season and there are few if any races to judge current form. All we are left with is career records and whispers about training in faraway places like the Canary Islands and Australia.
While Slowtwitch editor Herbert Krabel will be on scene, this is the early odds line for the advertised men’s field.
Rasmus Henning — 3-1
This Dane was clutch in winning the first two $200,000 prizes at the short course Hy-Vee World Cups in 2007 and 2008. Henning thrives in heat, killed the field at 2009 Ironman China and was on schedule to run an 8:15 debut Ironman there until 108-degree temps forced a conservative finish. Has also won medals at ITU long course worlds at the Iron distance. Late last September, broke his hand in a bike crash, contemplated withdrawal from his Kona debut, but soldiered through to a painful but heroic 5th place finish. Big money clutch performer has the game to dominate – and he is healthy.
Eneko Llanos 4-1
This talented Spaniard won the ITU long course worlds in 2003, came second to Macca at Wildflower and to Crowie at Ironman Hawaii in 2008. In 2009, Llanos was second at Wildflower to Andy Potts, second to Timo Bracht at Frankfurt, fell to 14th at Kona, but recovered to win his third Xterra World title in Maui. Great bet for second – if training in the Canary Islands has him fit in March.
Faris Al Sultan 9-2
German sensation whose Kona record went from 7th in 2003 to 3rd in 2004 to a win in 2005, and back to 3rd in 2006. Powerful, talented, great tactically in all three disciplines, has disappointed himself the past few years. May have home court advantage as he now is sponsored by Abu Dhabi and trains there. Long bike may favor Al-Sultan, and shorter run should also benefit the man whose winning marathon at Kona in 2005 was just 2:55 – Normann Stadler territory. Al-Sultan needs to return to his old form and 6th at Frankfurt and 10th at Kona last year leave him in need of a comeback.
Jordan Rapp 5-1
Smart, strategic, good in all three disciplines – but great bike rider and perhaps one of the top five cyclists in the sport. Long 200km bike could fall into his wheelhouse. Breakthrough 2009 brought him win at Ironman Canada and race record win at Ironman Arizona against tough field make him a man to watch..
Rutger Beke 6-1
The Belgian started his Wildflower career in 2004 with a strong second to 4-time winner Chris McCormack. That day, Beke's 1:16:08 run carved 2:38 from Macca's lead – he just ran out of room. With a 2nd, 3rd, 4th at Ironman Hawaii and a comeback 3rd place in 2008 at Kona, Beke has the bike and run to win it. However, he's coming off off-the-back days at Wildflower and a DNS-injury at Kona which made for a disastrous 2009. However, an 8:18 win at Ironman Cozumel late in the year redeemed him and indicates Beke is ready for 2010.
Ronnie Schildknecht 7-1
Had breakthrough 2008 with wins at Ironman Switzerland and Ironman 70.3 Switzerland, a win at the European Duathlon Championship and a 4th at Kona. In 2009, he repeated at Switzerland’s Ironman and 70.3 events, and took 3rd at Oceanside 70.3 but flamed out to 18th at Kona. If he’s back on form, a podium threat.
Philip Graves 15-2
In 2009, then 20-year-old Philip Graves became the youngest ever Ironman winner with his triumph at Ironman UK and showed his speed with a win at Ironman 70.3 UK as well. Showed guts by taking off to the lead at Kona debut, but faded to 54th after a 3:37 marathon. Great cyclist – up to and including the Ironman distance – and should drag race his way to the lead pack at Abu Dhabi. But his run is suspect.
Dirk Bockel 8-1
This German-born Luxembourg man broke away in the Olympic bike and led for 30 minutes before he faded to 25th on the run in Beijing. But going long seems his strength. In 2009, took 3rd at Ironman New Zealand, won Florida 70.3 and a strong 7th at Kona. This winter trained hard at National Training Center in Clermont with Jordan Rapp and is ready for Abu Dhabi.
Pete Jacobs 9-1
This Aussie can swim bike and run well and took second at Quelle Challenge Roth last year
Bjorn Andersson 19-2
The powerful Swede is one of the triathlon’s greatest cyclists. He led most of the Clearwater bike in 2007 – and actually hung on in the run long enough to win Wildflower in 2007 and led 2009 Wildflower off the bike. A good swimmer, Andersson will likely lead the charge on the bike. Bearlike Bjorn has a questionable run, will be licking his chops in anticipation of the over-distance bike and under-distance run.
Joe Gambles 10-1
Rose to prominence last year with 5th-places at California 70.3 and Wildflower long course, 2nd to Matt Reed at Rev3, 3rd behind the Crowie-Lieto duel at Boise, and a course record 3:49:18 win at Vineman 70.3 highlighted by a 2:08:15 bike and a 1:13:17 run. Another course record win at Lake Stevens 70.3 with best bike and best run plus a 5th at Clearwater. Proved to be top rank at the 70.3 – but can he do the same with an Ironman-distance bike?
Ain Alar Juhanson 21-2
The gentle giant from Estonia has won twice on the rugged hills and wind of Lanzarote and set fastest bike at Kona in 2008 and broke Cam Brown’s winning streak at Ironman New Zealand a few years ago when wild winds and waves shortened the race down to a half Ironman duathlon. But at Kona in 2009, he came off the bike 19 minutes back of Chris Lieto and ran well until his IT band on the right knee acted up and he had to walk it home. Should ride with the best, but health and run remain a question mark.
Olivier Marceau 23-2
Swiss two-time Olympian (2000-2004) has a killer bike and has won on every triathlon format.
Mathias Hecht 12-1
Rising Swiss star and Commerzbank teammate of Normann Stadler finished 8th at Kona in 2008, followed up in 2009 with a 12th at Ironman Australia, 5th at Frankfurt and a 3rd at Frankfurt 70.3. But at the end of the year, dropped back a little to 13th at Kona. Trained hard under the guidance of Greg and Laura Bennett and rode the mountains of Boulder well.
Leon Griffin 23-2
The 2006 ITU Duathlon World Champion has focused on the 70.3 races and dipped his toe into some Ironman races. In 2009, took 7th at ITU long distance Worlds and a frustrated 9th at Clearwater after a drafting call he hotly disputed. Best current indicator is a second place, 90 seconds behind Crowie at Geelong 70.3 last month. Bottom line: Has a decent world-class bike and a top-five run.
Richard Ussher 15-1
Top Kiwi adventure racer and Olympic mogul skier made a splash at the Ironman distance in 2009 with a 5th at Ironman New Zealand and a 3rd at Quelle Challenge Roth and continued his upward curve in 2010 with a win at Challenge Wanaka.
Raynard Tissink 17-1
The South African has one of the most consistent long course careers with six Ironman wins (Korea in 2001 and 2007) Canada (2003) South Africa (2005) Austria (2005) and Wisconsin (2009) as well as seven second place Ironman finishes and a 7th place at Ironman Hawaii and several Ironman 70.3 wins.
Maik Twelsiek 18-1
The 29-year-old German has wins at Ironman Wisconsin (2007) and Ironman Lake Placid (2009) and sixth place finishes at Quelle Challenge Roth (2008) and Ironman Frankfurt (2009) and an 11th place finish at Ironman Hawaii in 2008 and 12th last year. A teammate of Normann Stadler’s Commerzbank squad, Twelsiek’s best days are ahead.
Rob Woestenborghs 22-1
Top Belgian duathlete crossed the line first at the 2008 ITU World Duathlon Championships but was DQ’d for “dangerous riding” after a protest from fellow Belgian Jurgen Dereere. Can really motor on the bike and with all the room available on Abu Dhabi highways may make his mark legally.
Bryan Rhodes 26-1
The Kiwi with four Ironman victories, including a still-standing race record 8:10 at Ironman Malaysia, has a superior swim and bike but has a hard time putting it all together lately.
