California 70.3 at Oceanside odds
After the stellar field at the Abu Dhabi International Triathlon, Rohto Ironman 70.3 California at Oceanside has the best field so far this year. Almost half the depth and virtually all the quality of the Ironman 70.3 World Championship field in November. Oceanside this year is no different with scads of World Champions, formers winners and 70.3 and Ironman speedsters to start 2010 off with a bang.
Men
Matt Reed 3-1
Matt Reed is the defending champion at this race. He came back from a kick to his chops and asthma attack last year on the swim to set a race record 1:11:15 run and outpace Andy Potts to the finish. This course, with its big hill on Camp Pendleton separates the contenders from the pretenders on the bike.
Andy Potts 7-2
Last year Potts built his usual big lead on the swim and bike, but got outrun by the 6-5 Reed. Pottsy has an Ironman 70.3 World title and multiple Ironman 70.3 wins. If he’s fit this early, will race his good friend Matt Reed right to the finish.
Rasmus Henning 5-1
The dashing Dane might have broken up the Reed-Potts dominance in the odds if he weren't coming off the super-long Abu Dhabi bike, where he finished third overall. Probably still needs recovery time. But beware – he is a clutch performer on the big stage as witnessed by his two $200,000 wins at Hy-Vee, his ITU long course world championship medals and his clutch 5th in his Ironman Hawaii debut – with a broken hand – last October.
Tim O’Donnell 7-1
O’Donnell hit the big time last year with an ITU long course World Championship gold, and wins at St Croix, Boulder Peak, and Boulder 5430 long course. After years of hard work, he has a first rate run just a notch down from the best, great bike and swim and has to be a contender at any 70.3 race in the world. Odds a shade longer here than at mid season because he has not traditionally been at his best for the first race of the year.
Michael Raelert 8-1
Younger brother of Ironman Hawaii 3rd place finisher Andreas and outdid his older brother with a sensational win at Ironman 70.3 World Championship, capped by his astounding 1:09 closing half marathon. What’s with the longer odds? Clearwater bike was dead flat with a swarm of 30 men in the lead pack. Oceanside has a monster hill in Camp Pendleton and will reward bike strength of Matty Reed and Andy Potts.
Tim DeBoom 10-1
In 2003 he won all his races at this distance and was favored to three-peat Kona when kidney stones derailed his Ironman Hawaii quest. In the years since, has shown streaks of usual brilliance in between nagging injuries and off days. If he's at all back, could win it. But 2009 was a very discouraging year with a DNF at Kona and honestly had no really good days at all.
Michael Lovato 11-1
This two-time Ironman winner is back on track at the Ironman 70.3 distance with a win last year at Rhode Island, a strong 3rd at Eagleman 2009 and a nice performance at Timberman 70.3 in 2007.
Jordan Rapp 12-1
Would be lower odds if not recovering from 200km bike during his 7th place finish at Abu Dhabi. Winner at 2009 Ironman Canada and Arizona has arrived at world class status that is best at the full Ironman. However, when faced with demanding bike hills at Oceanside, this top cyclist could get out front. And second-best 20km run (by 8 seconds to Eneko Llanos) against a stacked field at big-money Abu Dhabi means he might just have the wheels to make the podium.
Richie Cunningham 14-1
One of steadiest high-quality Ironman 70.3 competitors with podium and other top five finishes at the Ironman 70.3 World Championship. Finished 4th here last year.
Paul Amey 16-1
Two-time ITU Duathlon World Champion and ITU World Champ long course medalist has the game but has been off and on for the past few years. Swim isn’t so bad and bike and run are red hot – when he's on.
Andrew Yoder 22-1
Young mighty mite with killer bike is going up in distance here. Great swim and bike should put him in contention, but longer run (fast improving but still under par) will drive him down the standings.
Women
Mirinda Carfrae 2-1
Before her spectacular Kona debut second place finish with a race record 2:56 marathon last October, the 28-year-old Aussie star killed the Ironman 70.3 circuit with wins at Muskoka, Calgary, Eagleman, Rev 3 and started off the year with a win right here at Oceanside, running down ITU Olympic distance star Sarah Groff in the final mile. If healthy, virtually unbeatable.
Samantha McGlone 5-1
This 2006 Ironman 70.3 world champion used to rule the Ironman 70.3 roost and took three wins at the distance in 2006, 2007, and 2008 before Achilles tendon injury knocked her off her groove until she scored a win at Honu 70.3 halfway through 2009. Her win at Ironman Arizona late last year marked an even better return to form. Win last month at Desert Classic Duathlon over Michellie Jones, Leanda Cave and Angela Naeth means her speed is on. DNF at Abu Dhabi is good news bad news. Good news is she isn’t worn out. Bad news is she had a bad day in a big money race.
Sam Warriner 7-1
The ITU World Cup series overall points winner in 2008 and bronze medalist in the 2008 ITU World Championship and 2008 Olympian has won her share of Ironman 70.3 races. Last year she won Snap Geelong 70.3 early, was off form at Oceanside and took 7th, but won Steelhead 70.3 in August. In 2010, she took 4th at Ironman 70.3 Geelong.
Michellie Jones 11-1
Back in the day, never ever bet against the Divine Miss Jones. The winningest triathlete in history with 130-plus titles, she won Escape from Alcatraz 8x, Chicago 8x, took the ITU Olympic distance World Title in 1992 and 1993, took the silver medal at the 2000 Olympics and won Ironman Hawaii in 2006. Now at age 40, she still rocks – just a tad more gently. Recently took second to Sam McGlone at Desert Classic Duathlon.
Pip Taylor 12-1
In 2009, stellar Aussie won Vineman 70.3, Australia long course championship, Memphis in May, and took second to Wellington at Kansas 70.3. So far this year took second at Australian long course championship. In 2003, took an ITU World Cup win at Manchester, and a second at New York World Cup. In 2004 took second at World Cups in Tongyeong and Corner Brook. Can win when she’s all the way on.
Kate Major 14-1
No, this is not the Star magazine tabloid scribe now dating Octopop Jon Gosselin, but rather a highly esteemed athlete — former pro squash player with three Ironman Hawaii third place finishes, Ironman wins at Arizona and Lake Placid, and 70.3 wins at Boise (2008) Timberman and California in 2007 and a victory at Goodoowindi Hell of the West in 2005. Most recent good form was a 3rd at Ironman Arizona last Fall.
Caitlin Snow 18-1
Massachusetts mother quit teaching and turned pro took 4th at New Orleans, 3rd at St Croix with fastest run split (1:21:58) and won the Hyannis half marathon with a time of 1:19:23. In 2008, finished 12th pro woman and posted 3rd fastest run time and 8th fastest in IMH history. Relative late blooming at age 28 is still a long shot but has the wheels to podium. Also won run prime at Rev 3 last year.
Angela Naeth 20-1
Our for as year with injuries, but came back for a third place at Desert Classic Duathlon a few seconds behind Michellie Jones. Was 8th at Ironman 70.3 Worlds, 3rd at 2008 Muskoka 70.3, 3rd at Boulder 5430 long course, won 2008 Boulder Peak, and won the Canadian Triathlon Championships in 2007 and 2008.
Amanda Lovato 22-1
Coming on strong in 2010 with a win at Pucon 70.3. In 2005 took the Boulder Peak-Boulder 5430 long course double and has a 4th place PB at Ironman Florida in 2007.
Kelly Williamson 27-1
Austin-based triathlete and runner loves the 70.3 circuit. In 2009, she took seconds at Buffalo Springs Lake and Augusta, 4ths at Steelhead and Longhorn, and 5th at Eagleman. Won a marathon (2:52) and a half marathon (1:23) and took second at the Austin Olympic distance event in 2009. Top triathlon performance was a win at the Spirit of Racine Half Ironman in 2008.
