Chicago Triathlon odds

Greg Bennett, Matt Reed and Andy Potts are all tied with 18,000 points apiece after two of the five events in the Life Time Fitness Triathlon Series race for the Toyota Cup. Bennett took a third at Minneapolis (8,000) and a win at New York (10,000), Reed took a win at Minneapolis (10,000) and a third in New York (8,000) and Potts has scored two second place finishes (9,000 points each). However, Bennett is still recovering from injuries suffered when he was hit by a car when training on the bike in Boulder and will not start in Chicago – although the three-time Life Time Fitness/Toyota Cup series champ has his sights set on rejoining the fray in Los Angeles and Dallas. That leaves Matt Reed, coming off a disappointing third place at the US Elite Championship in Tuscaloosa last weekend, and Andy Potts, coming off a dominating win at the Timberman Ironman 70.3 last weekend in New Hampshire, as the odds on favorites over potential challenges from Stuart Hayes, Andrew Yoder and Tim O’Donnell. Good long shot possibilities are super-cyclists Andrew Starykowicz and David Thompson and potential challenges from Aussies Paul Matthews and Simon Thompson.

Among the women, Becky Lavelle of Los Gatos, California (3rd in Minneapolis and 2nd in New York) is tied with Rebeccah Wassner of New Paltz, New York (4th in Minneapolis and 1st at New York) for the series lead with 17,000 points. Margaret Shapiro of Herndon, Virginia (7th in Minneapolis and 3rd in New York) is third with 12,000 points. And ITU superstar Sarah Haskins is third after a win in Minneapolis and skipping New York City. Dangerous Julie Dibens, who just beat Chrissie Wellington at the Boulder 5430 long course triathlon, is 5th in points after a second place in Minneapolis and missing New York with bike crash injuries. Possible wild cards include Pip Taylor and Sarah Groff.

With $10,000 to the winners of the race in Chicago, and $20,000 awaiting the winner of the series points races, the best non-drafting Olympic distance series in the world will have the usual stellar field competing in the Monroe Harbor and on Lakeshore Drive for their fair share of the $67,000 pro purse.

Timothy Carlson’s Odds

Men

Andy Potts (Colorado Springs, CO) 3-1

Potts is in the mid-season groove now after a long course win at Timberman 70.3. And with Bennett out of action due to injury and Reed in an unaccustomed off-form funk last week at Tuscaloosa, Potts should take his first Life Time Fitness-Toyota Cup win of 2009.

Stuart Hayes (Great Britain) 9-2

This talented Brit won here last year and after breaking away on the bike with Matt Reed from a hungry ITU field at the draft-legal Hy-Vee Triathlon. Hayes should prosper in the time trial formal in Chicago.

Matt Reed (Boulder CO) 5-1

Normally, Reed should be the odds-on favorite here. But unless he solves what made him curiously off his game last weekend in Alabama, Reed should be satisfied with a catered workout for the forthcoming ITU World Championship Series Grand Final on the Gold Coast of Australia in two weeks.

Andrew Yoder (Lancaster, Pennsylvania) 7-1

This 21-year-old phenom out biked the cream of the non-drafting men by 2 to 4 minutes at New York and hung on for 4th place. If he cuts a minute off his 34:40 10k, he can podium here.

Tim O’Donnell (Boulder, Colorado) 8-1

The odds would be much lower if we were at all sure O’Donnell had Chicago firmly in his racing calendar. After a close second to Matt Chrabot at Tuscaloosa, this Naval Academy grad has proved he belongs in the top rung of 70.3 and Olympic distance non-drafting racing.

David Thompson (St. Paul MN) 11-1

Another top contender who is still recovering from injury – last year’s hernia. Super-cyclist Thompson had built a solid swim and run – now his game is slowly returning to podium form. A 4th at Boulder 5430 half Ironman was promising, but still far off his 2007 race-winning form. Getting better by the week.

Paul Matthews (Australia) 13-1

A 4th at Minneapolis was promising. A 33-minute 10k run there is not.

Andrew Starykowicz (USA) 15-1

Can motor on the bike but 35-minute 10k run anchors him outside of the top 5.

Women

Sarah Haskins (Colorado Springs CO) 3-1

America’s top ITU racer, Haskins is coming off a 6th place finish in the high-quality Yokohama World Championship Series event. This would be a natural tune-up for the Gold Coast Grand Final – if she does not travel directly to Australia to train.

Julie Dibens (Great Britain) 7-2

After a mid-season bike crash, Dibens looks very tough. She took 2nd at Life Time Fitness in Minneapolis, 2nd at Boulder Peak and a huge win over Chrissie Wellington at Boulder 5430 long course. Will charge on the bike and hold on in the run.

Rebeccah Wassner (New Paltz, New York) 4-1

Winner at St. Anthony’s, Columbia, Philadelphia and New York and a strong second to Mirinda Carfrae at the Rev3 half-Ironman in Connecticut, Wassner has a strong swim and bike and may be the only Chicago women’s contender who can run with Sarah Haskins.

Becky Lavelle (Los Gatos, California) 5-1

Back on her game and perfectly capable of adding another Chicago title to her resume. Run is coming strong. This year’s results are solid and getting better: 3rd at Alcatraz, 12th overall and 2nd American at the absolutely loaded field at the $1 million Hy-Vee World Cup, 3rd at Minneapolis, 2nd in New York City, and a big win at the Lake Stevens 70.3.

Sarah Groff (Colorado USA) 8-1

The USA’s top-ranked ITU World Cup series triathlete in 2008 started 2009 spectacularly with a close second at the California Ironman 70.3, but has not returned to last year’s form yet. If she has returned to fitness, a definite podium contender.

Pip Taylor (Australia) 10-1

If on form, this Aussie would be a definite podium threat. In short course she won Memphis in May and took second at AFLAC Iron Girl Atlanta and took 6th at Minneapolis. Going long, she won the Australian long course championship, and set a course record winning Vineman 70.3, took second to Chrissie Wellington at Kansas 70.3, with a 5th at Geelong (Australia) 70.3.

Mary Beth Ellis (Colorado Springs CO) 11-1

If not injured, Ellis would be co-favorite. In an up and down 2009, she took 9th at Oceanside 70.3, won Escape From Alcatraz, but a flat at New York City and other troubles leave her off superb 2008 form that led her to a silver medal at the Ironman 70.3 World Championship.

Margaret Shapiro (Herndon Virginia) 13-1

Excellent third place at New York City with a 4th-best run marks Shapiro as still rising in the non-drafting ranks.