Collins Cup Match-up Predictions
The intrigue of the Collins Cup begins in earnest with the Captain’s match-ups of star versus star versus star. For those new to the Collins Cup — it is much like the Ryder Cup, whereby each three person race will consist of a member of Team Europe, Team USA, and Team International, earning points to determine who wins the Cup. Bonus points are awarded for margins of victory. Match-ups were determined during yesterday's press events, and now we predict our victors come the end of racing on Saturday in Samorin.
Match 1
Daniela Ryf EUR
Sarah True USA
Flora Duffy INT
Ryf’s collision with Flora Duffy is a Collins Cup headliner. But with the 100km format leaning slightly toward the Olympic distance star the Ironman and the 70.3 dominator, the edge goes to the Bermudian. Unfortunately for Team USA, we feel like True will feel the after-effects of her effort at IRONMAN Lake Placid at the end of July and trail the other two women.
Match 2
Laura Philipp EUR
Chelsea Sodaro USA
Ashleigh Gentle INT
Before she was knocked out of the field by illness, Laura Philipp was a favorite at this year's IRONMAN World Championships in St. George. Now Philipp has come back to the form that brought her long winning streaks, she should be a slight favorite over Gentle, who is coming off an impressive win at PTO Canada. Team USA will likely be in an early hole after the first two races.
Match 3
Kat Matthews EUR
Skye Moench USA
Paula Findlay INT
Kat Matthews’ impressive win at the Sub-8 Hours, and the time she has had to recover, mark her as a slight favorite in this match-up over Paula Findlay, who looked strong in her runner-up finish at PTO Canada, and Moench, who has quietly put together a strong 2022 with a fourth in St George and a 20 minute victory in Des Moines.
Match 4
Nicola Spirig EUR
Sophie Watts USA
Vittoria Lopes INT
Lot of so-called experts chattered about Spirig’s 40 years, but her Sub8 performance, her Olympic medals, dominant cycling and her desire to go out into retirement on a winning streak point to a Swiss victory. We anticipate Watts to finish in front of Lopes.
Match 5
Holly Lawrence EUR
Jocelyn McCauley USA
Ellie Salthouse INT
McCauley is a worthy substitute but not the equal of recent Collins Cup scratch Taylor Knibb. The fireworks will come from long term rivals Holly Lawrence and Ellie Salthouse. Slight edge to Lawrence over Salthouse, with McCauley projected as the caboose.
Match 6
Anne Haug EUR
Jackie Hering USA
Tamara Jewett INT
Super runners Anne Haug of Germany and Canadian Tamara Jewett should duke it out. Jewett has recovered from her February bike crash injury and, given the Olympic distance edge in the 100km course, should hold a tiny edge over the German long course star. Hering has been able to match her 2021 form to date and will likely find tough sledding during this match.
Match 7
Kristian Blummenfelt NOR
Ben Kanute USA
Hayden Wilde NZL
Blummenfelt’s tough outing at the PTO Canadian Open and loss there to countryman Gustav Iden proved the Olympic gold medalist and Ironman distance record setter was human. Methinks Blummenfelt will be fired up to gain a measure of revenge by crushing his competition during this match.
Match 8
Sam Laidlow EUR
Sam Long USA
Lionel Sanders INT
This race should come down to a running battle between Sanders and Long. Unless hampered by illness or injury (which is always a possibility given his prodigious training volume), the Lionel Train should prevail late, much like he did at the St George 70.3.
Match 9
Magnus Ditlev EUR
Rudy Von Berg USA
Max Neumann INT
This is one of the more evenly matched battles throughout the weekend. However, Von Berg still has not shown to be the same athlete since a mystery illness that took him out of the Collins Cup last year. Expect Ditlev to take this race.
Match 10
Patrick Lange GER
Jason West USA
Aaron Royle INT
If he is healthy and back on form, the two-time Ironman World Champion should handle the Yank and the Aussie. That is, however, a big if — Lange has been dynamite in Kona and kryptonite near every other race over the last few seasons. If Lange is off form, we peg West for the win.
Match 11
Gustav Iden EUR
Matt Hanson USA
Jackson Laundry INT
Iden has to be considered the favorite here, given his complete attack across all three disciplines. However, if in striking distance, both Hanson and Laundry have the run speed to close down a gap — something Iden has yet to have to contend with at longer distances.
Match 12
Daniel Baekkegard EUR
Chris Leiferman USA
Braden Currie NZL
This will most likely be the closest race all weekend. The talented trio might end up in a three-way-tie. But with his record of top performances on the big days, the nod goes to Braden Currie just over Leiferman.
The total points picture, then, should put Europe comfortably raising the Collins Cup for the second year running.
