Hy-Vee Men’s Odds
Last year at Hy-Vee, five men fought for the $200,000 prize with a last lap sprint battle that was among the greatest in triathlon history. When the tumult and the shouting were over, 2000 Olympic gold medalist Simon Whitfield out-dueled Brad Kahlefeldt, Jan Frodeno and Kris Gemmell in one of the most pulse pounding finishes ever.
That's just what happened when you mix a million dollar purse, a great field and a table-flat course that rules out a bike breakaway and encourages an Olympic-style strategic race awaiting the final sprint.
This year all three ingredients are the same. But are the players different? There are so many questions to be answered Sunday in West Des Moines, Iowa.
Can canny veteran Simon Whitfield fend off the ravages of age that will inevitably afflict the sprint speed that has been his hole card in the sport's biggest days throughout his career?
Can Kris Gemmell emerge from a 2010 slump to contend for the big prize once again?
Which Jan Frodeno will show up? The 2008 Olympic gold medalist and 2010 Seoul WCS winner who ruled in the final sprint? Or the flaky contender who took 32nd at the Sydney WCS?
Which Bevan Docherty has arrived at Hy-Vee? The 2004 ITU World Champion, 2004 Olympic silver medalist, 2007 and 2008 Hy-Vee runner-up, 2010 Sydney World Championship Series winner? Or the 2009 Hy-Vee DNF?
Can Jarrod Shoemaker revive the form that brought him a win at the 2009 WCS race in Hamburg? Can J the Shoe hang tough another 300 meters this year at Hy-Vee to take a win rather than a 5th?
Can 2006 ITU World Champion Tim Don bring his sub-29 minute 10k speed he achieved in a European road race this spring into the final leg at Hy-Vee?
Can either Alexander Brukhankov or Dimitry Polyansky bring a From Russia With Love brilliance to their 2010 WCS points scoring reliability?
Can relatively new USA citizens Matt Reed (NZL) and Greg Bennett (AUS) revive their best games to bring Hy-Vee gold?
Will a healthy Alistair Brownlee invade Iowa in 2011?
Here are the odds devised by demented wizard prognosticator Timothy Carlson:
The Men
Simon Whitfield (CAN) 3-1
2010 — 5th Sydney WCS
Hy-Vee — 2007 6th, 2008 5th, 2009 1st
The defending champ passed up Madrid to focus on Hy-Vee. Best big-day clutch player in the game cheats the scythe of aging once again.
Courtney Atkinson (AUS) 4-1
2010 — 11th Mooloolaba World Cup, 2nd Seoul WCS, 2nd Madrid WCS
Hy-Vee — 2009 41st
Atkinson was off the back here last year. But he is red-hot and an eyelash away from two WCS wins. With Brownlee absent, should be the logical favorite. Strike against him: Tough Madrid race was six days and 8 time zones away.
Alexander Brukhankov (RUS) 9-2
2010 — 2nd Sydney WCS. 5th Seoul WCS, 10th Madrid WCS
Hy-Vee — 2007 14th
V e-ry steady this year. But 2nd-5th-10th WCS progression is going the wrong way. Needs some time off.
Bevan Docherty (NZL) 5-1
2010 — 1st Sydney WCS, 7th Seoul WCS
Hy-Vee — 2007 2nd , 2008 2nd, 2009 DNF
Second the first two Hy-Vees, but last year he missed the bloat on then Battle of West Des Moines.
Jan Frodeno (GER) 6-1
2010 — 32nd Sydney WCS, 1st Seoul WCS, 6th Madrid WCS
Hy-Vee — 2009 3rd
Winner at Seoul? Or 32nd at Sydney? Flip a coin for this super-talented German..
Tim Don (GBR) 13-2
2010 — 11th Seoul WCS, sub-29 minutes at International 10k run.
Hy-Vee — 2007 4th, 2008 8th, 2009 16th
Can run like the wind. Or hobble along to a mid pack finish.
Brad Kahlefeldt (AUS) 7-1
2010 — 1st Mooloolaba World Cup, 11th Sydney WCS, 2nd Seoul WCS
Hy Vee — 2008 DNF, 2009 2nd
Sticksie almost stuck it to the world last year at Hy-Vee, Second at Seoul and skipping Madrid may give him a chance to win his biggest race ever.
Dimitry Polyansky (RUS) 8-1
2010 — 4th Sydney WCS, 6th Seoul WCS, 8th Madrid WCS
Hy-Vee — 2007 25th
Like Brukhankov, a very reliable Russian. But does not quite have the firepower to win here.
Greg Bennett (USA) 9-1
2010 — 7th Sydney WCS
Hy-Vee — 2007 5th, 2008 3rd, 2009 29th
This 38-year-old ruled the Life Time Fitness Series for $500,000 in 2007. Clutch performer took the time to be ready and may surprise.
Ivan Rana (ESP) 11-1
2010 — 7th Mooloolaba World Cup, 12th Sydney WCS, 14th Seoul WCS, 25th Madrid WCS
Hy-Vee — 2007 10th, 2008 4th
2002 ITU World Champ has come back in 2008 and 2009 but has been just OK in 2010.
Matt Reed (USA) 12-1
2010 — Rev3 Knoxville 1st, Oceanside 70.3 2nd, Miami International 3rd, Saint Anthony's 5th
Hy-Vee — 2007 DNF, 2008 23rd, 2009 20th
Matty Reed has been up and down in 2010, not as sharp as he was in 2009. But has abandoned desperate I-must-breakaway-on-the-bike kamikaze strategy of his first three tries at Hy-Vee and can, on his best day, win this thing.
Laurent Vidal (FRA) 13-1
2010 — 8th Sydney WCS, 21st Seoul WCS
Top 5 on his best day.
Kris Gemmell (NZL) 14-1
2010 — 28th Seoul WCS, 5th Sydney WCS
Hy-Vee — 2007 15th, 2009 4th
When he gets his act together, can win, as evidenced by his presence in last year's thrilling sprint finish.
Hunter Kemper (USA)
2010 — 10th Sydney WCS, 1st Escape From Alcatraz
Late withdrawal with SI injury recurrence
Jarrod Shoemaker (USA) 15-1
2010 — 8th Seoul WCS
Hy-Vee — 2007 8th, 2008 19th, 2009 5th
Can win a big day sprint finish as evidenced by his come from behind 2009 ITU duathlon world championship.
Matt Chrabot (USA) 18-1
2010 — 9th Sydney WCS, 19th Seoul WCS, 2nd Monterrey World Cup,
14th Madrid WCS
Hy-Vee — 2008 21st, 2009 18th
Coming on strong, rising in the ranks.
Stuart Hayes (GBR) 19-1
2010 — 2nd Mooloolaba World Cup, 20th Sydney WCS
Hy-Vee — 2007 13th, 2008 14th, 2009 19th
Has shown in Life Time Fitness Series he is among the best in the world. In the draft-legal world or ITU racing, not as strong.
