IM Melbourne men’s favorites

March 19, 2013

Last year old guard stars Craig Alexander (38) and Cameron Brown (39) fought a stirring duel to the end with Crowie’s first sub-8 hours performance prevailing over Brown’s 8:00:12 in the inaugural Melbourne Ironman. This instant classic has attracted a similarly tough field in 2013. Here, presented for your consideration, are our favorites to win the men’s title, listed in order.

Marino Vanhoenacker (BEL), 36

Vanhoenacker almost had his dream race at Kona last October, leading halfway through the run before lack of hydration caused overheating and his diaphragm to shut down. After his meltdown, he pulled out at Mile 17. While Kona continues to be his white whale, Vanhoenacker has 10 Ironman wins, broke the 14-year old distance records set by Luc Van Lierde at Roth in 1997 with a 7:45:58 at Austria in 2011. He also topped the prestigious field at Ironman Frankfurt last year. Vanhoenacker has the motor and the will to win at Melbourne – still rehearsing for his dream race at Kona.

Craig Alexander (AUS), 39

After three wins at Kona and a stunningly impressive sub-8 hour victory at Melbourne last year at age 38, Alexander suffered an unexpected meltdown at Kona where he finished a stealth 12th. While Crowie was loath to offer any excuses whatsoever, people close to him say there were problems going into the race that had nothing to do with any inevitable decline with age. So this so-far ageless star looms once again as a co-favorite, slightly less likely than Vanhoenacker, to repeat as champion.

Eneko Llanos (ESP), 36

This talented Spaniard is coming into 2013 after two disappointing DNFs at Kona. On the other hand, he arrives at Melbourne after a hard-fought 2nd place at the big money, prestigious Abu Dhabi International (following a 3rd in 2012 and a win in 2010). Last year Llanos also earned a silver medal at the 2012 ITU long distance World Championship. Llanos can swim bike and run with the best, as attested by his 2nd place at Ironman Hawaii in 2008, as well as wins at Ironman Texas and Ironman Arizona in 2011 and a powerful win at Ironman Lanzarote in 2010. When Llanos is on, as he seems to be right now, he could be a lot better than this man’s 3rd choice.

Jordan Rapp (USA), 32

Rapp has recovered from his near fatal injuries sustained when hit by a car in March of 2010. The next year he proved he had returned to form with big wins at the 2011 ITU long distance World Championship and a second victory at Ironman Canada. In 2012, he continued to advance with dominant wins at Ironman Texas and Ironman U.S. – New York City as well as taking his second straight Leadman 250. His slight misfire to 13th place at Kona can be checked off as a learning experience. Which should make him quite dangerous at Melbourne.

Cameron Brown (NZL), 41

Last year’s duel between the 38-year-old Alexander and the 40-year-old Brown was a victory over the conventional wisdom that decline was inevitable when approaching 40 years of age. When the race was over, youth was denied and the 38-year-old Alexander broke 8 hours for the first time and Brownie came within 13 seconds of breaking the 8-hour barrier himself. Last year Brown was not going gently into old age as he also took a 4th at Challenge Roth and a 2nd at Challenge Cairns. Brownie did slip a little this year’s Ironman Zealand – the 10-time champion took 3rd place as Bevan Docherty smashed his race record. Brown won’t fall off the leaderboard, but he might not ever come as close as he did last year to another major Ironman win.

David Dellow (AUS), 33

This formerly decent World Cupper seems to have found his talent at long course with a fine 2012 that included a win at Ironman Cairns, a 3rd at the brutally tough Embrunman, a 5th at Ironman Melbourne and a 9th place at Kona. Under the coaching of Brett Sutton, who also handles Dellow’s girlfriend Caroline Steffen, Dellow is fast learning how to race smart in the big races.

Tim Van Berkel (AUS), 29

Van Berkel has learned how to win at the Ironman distance as his victories at Ironman Western Australia in 2008, and at Challenge Copenhagen in 2010 and 2011 attest. He also has speed and consistency as his many podium finishes at the 70.3 distance have proved. If he can hang with the great bikers in the field, he can unleash his best weapon – the run.

Tyler Butterfield (BER), 29

This 2-time Olympian used to spend all his time on the ITU Olympic distance circuit. But this year’s 3rd place finish at Abu Dhabi proves can apply his superior bike talent to long course. His 2nd at Galveston 5150 and 4th at the Hualtuco World Cup last year also showed that he had not lost his short course speed. At age 29, Butterfield has intriguing long course possibilities ahead which might just bloom at Melbourne.

Luke Bell (AUS), 33

Bell made a big splash at age 23 with his 5th place finish at Kona. Since then his best performances at the Ironman World Championships have been a 7th and a 13th. He has won 19 Half Ironman/70.3 wins but is still looking for a breakthrough win at the Ironman distance – he has placed 2nd at Brazil, Australia and Lake Placid. Recent form looks promising with a 2nd place at the 2013 Australian long course championship at Geelong.

Joe Gambles (AUS), 31

Gambles has set several course records, including Ironman Wisconsin, Boulder 70.3, and Timberman70.3. Last year he took 8th at Ironman Melbourne, 3rd at Rev3 Quassy, 2nd at Vineman 70.3 and won 70.3s at Boulder, Syracuse and Timberman. Long capable of a 70.3 World Championship podium, Gambles’ best was 4th at Clearwater, 5th at Ironman 70.3 Worlds in Las Vegas in 2011. Gambles also took silver at the 2011 ITU long distance World Championship. If he is healthy and on his game, Gambles could crack the podium here. Odds are more likely he will place 6th to 10th on March 24.

Victor Del Corral (ESP), 33

This Spaniard is toughest on the tough courses – but not sure that largely flat Melbourne will be his strong suit. Del Corral won Lanzarote in 2012. He triumphed at Alpe d’Huez in 2011 and 2012. He placed 3rd at Embrunman in 2010 and 2011 and won it in 2012. Del Corral also placed 2nd at the 2011 ITU Duathlon World Championship.

Christian Kemp (AUS), 33

Christian Kemp doesn’t have a long resume, but things started to go well for him last year when he placed 4th against a tough field at Vineman 70.3. He is quite hot right now, as he won the Asian Pacific Championship at the Half Ironman distance in Auckland and also took the Geelong Long Course. But don’t bet the farm on Kemp yet — this is his very first Ironman distance test.

Sylvain Sudrie (FRA), 31

Sudrie, the 2010 ITU long distance World champion, 2011 Gerardmer XL winner, and runner-up to Andreas Raelert at the 2012 Kraichgau Half Challenge, is coming off a 5th place at Abu Dhabi earlier this month.

Leon Griffin (AUS), 32

Griffin, the 2006 ITU Duathlon World Champion, has been consistent at the 70.3 distance, scoring six 3rd places, five 2nd places and six wins. Recent form has ranged from an 8th at Challenge Wanaka to a 4th at the Geelong long course. But Griffin, after forsaking his bank job last year to focus exclusively on triathlon, should be rounding into form.

Clayton Fettell (AUS), 26

Fettell peaked as a short course racer with 6th places at Alcatraz and Life Time Fitness Minneapolis in 2009 and 5th place at the 2010 Ishigaki World Cup. His transition to the 70.3 world started with a 5th at Geelong 70.3 in 2010, got better in 2011 with a 2nd at Wildflower and a win at Port Macquarie, and improved in 2012 with 70.3 wins at Mooseman, Kansas and Port Macquarie. His 2013 form is decent, with a 5th at the Geelong long course event. But can he succeed at the Ironman distance?

Jimmy Johnsen (DEN), 34

With Rasmus Henning’s retirement, Johnsen may have inherited the role of top Danish Ironman. Johnsen was knocking on the door of prominence in 2009 with a 4th at Ironman Australia and a 3rd at Ironman Western Australia. In 2010 he won Challenge Barcelona and in 2011 he was 2nd at Challenge Copenhagen. Last year he was 3rd at Ironman Cairns and at Challenge Copenhagen and won Ironman Western Australia.

Matty White (AUS), 36

In 2012, White placed 3rd at Ironman Western Australia, 2nd at Busselton 70.3, and 4th at Ironman Cairns, Urban Hotels Long Course and at Mandurah 70.3.

Chris Legh (AUS), 40

After his digestive meltdown at the Ironman Hawaii finish line in 1997 that cost him 12 inches from his colon, Legh regrouped and won Ironman California in 2000. After overcoming further physical woes – a tiny hole in his heart that sabotaged his Ironman efforts — he won a stirring victory at Ironman Coeur d’Alene in 2004 that became the centerpiece of a famous Gatorade ad. Unaffected at the middle distance, he won nine 70.3 races in three years with a killer bike and run but his best at the 70.3 Worlds in Clearwater – a flat course which did not play to his strengths — was 4th. As he approached and reached the age of 40, Legh seems to be nearly as good as ever in 2012 with a 5th at Wildflower, a win at Lake Stevens 70.3 and a 2nd at Calgary 70.3. The question remains: Can he leave his Ironman-distance woes behind?