ITU Grand Final Mens Odds
This 2010 ITU-Dextro Energy season, smack in the middle of the 2012 Olympic quadrennial, is a pivotal year without the 2009 perfection of Alistair Brownlee and not yet a real indicator of pre-Olympic form. What it offers is a wide-open contest for the win at the Grand Final in Budapest and a theoretical 7-man fight for the World Championship Series win.
The Dustup by the Danube features 2008 Olympic champ Jan Frodeno (four podiums and a win at Seoul) with a 231-point lead over a revived Javier Gomez (1st at Hamburg and London and 2nd at Kitzbuhel) leading the chase. Alexander Brukhankov lies third, Brad Kahlefeldt 4th, Germany’s Steffen Justus 5th, Courtney Atkinson 6th, and Jarrod Shoemaker 7th. All of them need a total eclipse of the two leaders (out of top 10) to have a prayer for the overall win.
Sorely missed will be injury-plagued Hunter Kemper and Bevan Docherty and Jonathon Brownlee, who is aiming at winning the Under 23 crown and leaving the senior elite field to his elder brother.
Men
Javier Gomez (ESP) 5-2
WCS points ranking 2
Gomez has returned to his 2006-early 2008 championship form that dipped to 4th place while suffering with a [painful, debilitating ankle injury at the Beijing Olympics. His run is once again at the low-to-sub-29 level. Head-to-head against Frodeno this year, he has a 4-1 advantage — 4th to Frodeno’s 6th at Madrid, 1st to Frodeno’s 2nd at Hamburg, 1st to Frodeno’s 3rd at London, and 2nd to Frodeno’s 3rd at Kitzbuhel. Still recovering from early season injury, he placed 12th to Frodeno’s win at Seoul. Do not forget, he was the only man to challenge the unbeatable 2009 edition of Alistair Brownlee, taking the Great Brit to the wire at last year’s Grand Final on the Gold Coast.
Jan Frodeno (GER) 3-1
WCS points ranking 1
With the exception of a flat tire induced 32nd at the opening WCS round at Sydney, Frodeno has exhibited consistent excellence which has him atop the WCS points standings. – 1st at Seoul, 6th at Madrid, 5th at Hy-Vee, 2nd at Hamburg, 3rd at London and Kitzbuhel. Not quite the dominating runner of 2008 Beijing – but the surest pick for the podium in Budapest and still the best pick for the World Championship Series title. His lead over Gomez is 231 points and if Gomez wins the Grand Final Frodeno can still win the World Championship points title if he finishes on the podium.
Alistair Brownlee (GBR) 4-1
WCS points ranking 17
Unbeatable in 2009, Brownlee came back from an earlty-2010 stress fracture to his femur to win Madrid, rested until London where he ran out of gas while leading with 500 meters to go and finished 10th. Look, if this guy is all rested up and healthy, he could still blow away the field. But he is having a tough year after his 2009 perfection and odds are he won’t do it this time.
Courtney Atkinson (AUS) 11-2
WCS points ranking 6
Atkinson is notorious for being red hot early in the season and fading at the end. This year he took 2nd at Seoul, 2nd at Madrid and 3rd at Hy-Vee. Late season form is not promising – he was 18th at Kitzbuhel. But has the horsepower to win — if this were three months ago.
Alexander Brukhankov (RUS) 6-1
WCS points ranking 3
Russian led the early season Dextro Energy WCS points chase with 2nd at Sydney, 5th at Seoul and 10th at Madrid and recovered form with a 4th at London. Consistent but not dominating finishes mark him for a mid-top-10 finish.
Tim Don (GBR) 7-1
WCS points ranking 11
The Don can be world-beating brilliant thanks to a true sub-29 10k speed in a road race in Great Britain. Especially note his 2006 come-from-behind ITU World Championship gold where he bested Olympic champ Hamish Carter in a running duel. Not to forget his smashing $200,000 win at Hy-Vee this year, followed by a 3rd at Hamburg. Mediocre for not-red-hot Tim were his 11th at Seoul, 13th at London and 12th at Kitzbuhel. Which one Don will show up at Budapest?
Brad Kahlefeldt (AUS) 10-1
WCS points ranking 4
At his best – such as the 2009 6-man duel at Hy-Vee — a top contender for the win. This year a good bet for top-10 or top-5 based on his 3rd at Seoul, 6th at Hamburg, 6th at London AND 8TH AT Kitzbuhel.
Stuart Hayes (GBR) 11-1
WCS points ranking 9
The shocker in the field. His win at Kitzbuhel was totally unforeseen – his best days were contending for the Lifetime Fitness-Toyota Cup crowns the last few years. He must pay tribute to coach Michelle Dillon for unleashing his own previously untapped great talent. Now he has to figure out how to reprise Austria and avoid the one hit-wonder tag and not return to his 8th place finish at London and 20th at Sydney.
Steffen Justus (GER) 12-1
WCS points ranking 5
Ve-ry consistent German took 4th at Seoul, 5th at Madrid, 8th at Hamburg and 9th at London. Slipped to 20th at Kitzbuhel and must have rested and tapered for Budapest to avoid grim slide to mid-pack.
Kris Gemmell (NZL) 14-1
WCS points ranking 27
This Kiwi can be brilliant, as seen with his $50,000 2nd place at Hy-Vee. But that prime cut sirloin is sandwiched by mediocre bread – a 15th at Sydney and 23rd at London.
Jarrod Shoemaker (USA) 15-1
WCS points ranking 7
The USA’s best ITU Olympic distance triathlete and status as top rank ITU runner did not garner the spotlight as he did in 2009 with a win at Hamburg. But his 8th at Seoul, 9th at Madrid and Hy-Vee, and 7th place finishes at Hamburg and London make him a sure bet for a top-10 and good bet for a top-5 at Budapest.
Sven Riederer (SUI) 16-1
WCS points ranking 10
The 2004 Olympic bronze medalist has his days as evidenced by a 3rd place at Madrid and a 4th at Hamburg. But a 15th at London and 16th at Kitzbuhel do not bode well for Budapest hardware.
Matt Chrabot (USA) 17-1
WCS points ranking 14
Rose to prominence in USA with his Elite Pro title and top finishes at Lifetime-Toyota Cup races. But his crafting of a top-level all-around game was revealed with his 4th place finish at Kitzbuhel – three places better than Jarrod Shoemaker’s best this year.
Maik Petzold (GER) 16-1
WCS points ranking 28
Finished high in the 2009 points chase. But only sign of return to form in 2010 was his promising 5th place at Kitzbuhel.
Simon Whitfield (CAN) 18-1
WCS points ranking 16
Brilliant Olympic gold and silver, Commonwealth Games gold, Hy-Vee $200,000 win has never been matched by an ITU World Championship medal. Mid-season tweaks and niggles augur nicht sehr gut at Budapest.
Dimitry Polyansky (RUS) 20-1
WCS points ranking 8
Started well with 4th at Sydney, 6th at Seoul, 8th at Madrid and 7th at Hy-Vee but absent from late season top-10.
David Hauss (FRA) 21-1
WCS points ranking 15
Got 3rd at Sydney and 9th at Kitzbuhel.
Greg Bennett (ITU) 22-1
WCS points ranking 34
Benno is 38 and is in a rebuilding year. Still took 7th at Sydney to start the season, but could only manage 25th at Kitzbuhel. Not likely to regain 2007 world beating form in three weeks.
