Olympic Triathlon Women Favorites
By Timothy Carlson
July 23, 2021
In this Pandemic-plagued year, there is more than the usual mystery surrounding who will wear the gold at the Tokyo Olympic Triathlon. Time off due to Covid can allow some to enjoy extended, uninterrupted training blocks to reach new heights. Or, the relative scarcity of races can rob some of racing sharpness – or protect those leaning toward overuse and excess mileage from themselves. Brilliant new faces include Taylor Knibb, Maya Kingma, and Summer Rappaport. Amazing two-time Olympic medalist Nicola Spirig is out to prove that 39 is just a number. Veteran stars like Katie Zaferes and Flora Duffy might have time to recall their health and great exploits. And the Tres Amigas from Great Britain may prove their experience may come into full bloom in their 30s.
Flora Duffy, 33, Bermuda
The Bermudian dominated the sport from 2016 to early 2018, then a foot injury took her out of the picture for a year. That early period included two WTS World Championships with a streak of four straight WTS victories, a Commonwealth Games victory, and momentum that promised to avenge her disappointing 8th place at the 2016 Rio Olympics. As the Tokyo Games approached the question was: Could she fully overcome her injury and return to that dominating form?
At the Tokyo Olympic Qualification race in August 2019, Duffy answered with a resounding 35-seconds margin of victory over a stacked field, with a 2nd best bike split and a 7th-best 17:23 5k run. Since then, Duffy had had a solid podium plateau with a with a 5th the 2019 Grand Final, 3rd at the 2019 Banyoles World Cup, 2nd at the 2020 Hamburg Wasser World Triathlon and wins at the Karlovy Vary and Arzachena World Cups. But a 4th place hiccup at the high pressure 2021 WTS Leeds leaves Duffy with something to prove.
Duffy’s top shelf swim and a bike that can break run away with partners in crime like Taylor Knibb, Jessica Learmonth and Maya Kingma to set Duffy up for her ace – a killer run. Has that run eroded since her injury? Not at all! She had substandard swim and bike legs at Leeds but finished with a flourish – a race-best 33:47 10k.
At Leeds, Duffy explained: ”I got hammered in the swim and had to work my way up the field and did the best to bridge the gap on the bike. I didn’t even think I was going to start the race so I can be happy with fourth. I was most worried about my run but that was the best of the three segments.”
Duffy is primed to make the best of her farewell to the Olympics. “This is a one-day event where everything matters, from the last four – or five – years of your life. This will be my last Olympics, so I’m at the top of my game and Tokyo is the day that matters for me.”
Maya Kingma, 26, Netherlands
For years Rachel Klamer was the top Netherlands woman triathlete but recently a new Ditch star was born in Maya Kingma. In the two biggest pre-Olympic, Kingma shined with a 3rd place at WTS Yokohama where she teamed up with Taylor Knibb in a bike breakaway then cinched a podium with a just good enough 25th best 35:49 run. Flash in the pan? Vulnerable with a weak run? At WTS Leeds Kingma settled those doubts with an overall win – by 11 seconds over bike breakaway partner Jessica Learmonth, starting with a third-fastest 18:233 swim and capped with a 5th-best 34:59 run split.
Summer Rappaport, 30, USA
In 2016, Summer scored three major wins with a debut WTS victory in Edmonton and golds at the Chengdu and Tongyeong World Cups, and was named ITU’s Breakout Female Star of the Year. In 2017 Summer earned three more World Cup wins at Yucatan, Tongyeong and Miyazaki. In 2018 Summer won the Antwerp World Cup in June and defended her Miyazaki World Cup in December. Rappaport made her Olympic chance breakthrough with a 5th place finish at the 2019 Tokyo Olympic Qualification race that earned her the first U.S. women’s Olympic slot. But Rappaport vaulted to Olympic medal contender in 2021 with a 2nd at WTS Yokohama, 30 seconds behind Taylor Knibb and her bike breakaway with Maua Kingma. Then Rappaport blasted into second place with a race-best, Olympic medal contending 33:24 run.
Strategically Rappaport’s strong suit is a race-best swim, but it vulnerable on the bike. She has the ability to charge back to the podium with a first class run, but not enough to make up for her bike to vie for the gold.
Jessica Learmonth, 33, Great Britain
At the 2017 Grand Final in Rotterdam, Learmonth took the bronze. In 2018, Learmonth finished the season 5th in the overall WTS rankings. Silver at the 2018 WTS Abu Dhabi was followed by the same medal at the Commonwealth Games. In 2019, she landed five podiums to take 2nd overall in the season standings to Katie Zaferes. In a sad incident, Learmonth crossed the finish line at the Tokyo Olympic Qualifier in a tie for first with British teammate Georgia Taylor-Brown, only to discover that they were both disqualified for not competing to the end of the race – known as “a contrived tie.”. Learmonth got back in form with a 2nd place at the 2019 Grand Final in Lausanne. This year Learmonth cinched her status as an Olympic podium contender with an impressive 2nd place at WTS Leeds highlighted by a race best 59:42 bike split and capped off by a 7th-best 35:08 run.
Strategy: Learmonth is a good bet to lead out of the water and to team up with a bike breakaway that may or may not give her enough of a lead top hold on for the win.
Katie Zaferes, 32, USA
From 2015 through 2019, Zaferes made a linear progression from 5th, to 4th to 3rd to 2nd in WTS season standings. In 2019, Katie Zaferes ascended the World Crown that would make her a prohibitive favorite for Olympic gold. During her World Championship year, her record was ultra dominating including WTS wins at Bermuda, Yokohama and Montreal, and a 2nd at Leeds followed by a season closing win at the Grand Final at Lausanne.
But no one saw Zaferes suffering a bad crash at the 2019 Tokyo Olympic test event – the first automatic Olympic qualifier. On a straightaway, early in the ride, Zaferes looked back when her wheels turned and went into a barrier, stopping her cold. She broke her nose and blood was streaming down her face as she rode an ambulance to hospital. At that time, swimming was verboten and her shoulder had little range of motion. Miraculously, she recovered in time to race the 2019 Grand Final in Lausanne and managed to emerge from a two-person bike breakaway with Jessica Learmonth to take the win.
But on March of 2020, the Covid pandemic hit and her squad led by super coach Joel Fillol was unable to train for months. When racing resumed, Zaferes put together a series of substandard results. Sadly, on April 8 she was training in Spain when she got word of her father Bill’s death. Travel was delayed by a need for a Covid test which took two weeks. When she arrived in Maryland, she could not train for weeks and fell out of fitness. The first race back without her dad was at WTS Yokohama and Zaferes fell off the back into 18th at WTS Leeds and 22md at WTS Yokohama.
With one discretionary slot left for the U.S. women, the selection committee bet that with rest and recovery, Zaferes was the best bet for an Olympic medal.
Taylor Knibb, 23, USA
After two Junior National Championships, two Junior World Championships, and a 2018 Under 23 World Championship, Taylor Knibb was bound for glory. In 2018, she served notice by joining with World Champion Flora Duffy on a bike break on the way to a silver medal at WTS Edmonton. A 2nd place at the 2019 Santo Domingo World Cup proved Knibb remained on track. And ironically, the pandemic offered Knibb an opportunity to do some uninterrupted training which led to a surprise 30-seconds margin winning the 2021 WTS Yokohama which earned her the second Olympic slot for U.S. Women.
Strategy: Knibb has a front pack swim and can break away on the bike with any top WTS cyclist – which was Kingma at Yokohama. As for a run, Knibb’s 35:09 was 1:45 slower than Rappaport’s race-best split at Yokohama.
Nicola Spirig, 39, Switzerland
After winning Olympic gold at London 2012 in a thrilling finale, Spirig then came second to Gwen Jorgensen at Rio 2016, making her the most successful female Olympic triathlete. While dabbling in some longer races, Spirig kept in the Olympic distance games with a win at 2018 World Cup at Lausanne a 4th at WTS Hamburg and 5th at 2018 WTS Montreal.
In 2021, she honed her game out of the brighter lights finishing 1st at the Lisbon World Cup, with a race best 33:57 10k run 15 seconds better than the next best effort. Crafty coach Brett Sutton is well known for keeping his charges under the radar said that Spirig and his other Olympians were all coming to Tokyo “completely healthy.”
Georgia Taylor Brown, 27, Great Britain
Taylor-Brown broke into the big time in 2018 with a 2nd place at the Commonwealth Games, a win at WTS Leeds behind countrywoman Vicky Holland followed by bronzes at WTS Edmonton and WTS Montreal propelling her to third place on the 2018 season standings.
In 2019, she took 2nd at the WTS Bermuda and 2nd at the Grand Final in Lausanne. At the end of the year, she joined with Jessica Learmonth in their misbegotten finish line celebration which got them both disqualified for “a contrived tie” ruling.
Most important – recent results. 3rd at the 2019 Grand Final in Lausanne. 2nd at the 2020 Mooloolaba World Cup, 1st at the 2020 Hamburg Wasser World Triathlon and 2nd at the 2020 Karlovy World Cup.
Vicky Holland, 35, Great Britain
In 2014 Holland won her first major individual medal with a bronze at the Commonwealth Games. After 26th in her first Olympics in London she won bronze at Rio in 2016. Safter a long layoff due to injury in 2017, she took 2nd in 2018 at WTS Bermuda and gold at WTS Leeds, then two more wins at WTS Edmonton and WTS Montreal, capping off a 2018 World Title with a 2nd place at the 2018 Grand Final on the Gold Coast. Any questions about her Tokyo suitability were answered with a 3rd place at the 2019 Tokyo Olympic Qualification event. Tuning up for 2021, Holland took a 5th at the Lisbon World Cup.
Ashleigh Gentle, 30, Australia
Gentle leads the 2021 Australian women Olympic contenders – as Australia is the only country to qualify the full complement of three women and three men for the Tokyo Olympics.
Gentle placed 26th at the 2016 Rio Olympics, won the 2018 Commonwealth Games, won the 2018 Grand Final on the Gold Coast, won the 2019 Mooloolaba World Cup. In 2017 she finished second in the WTS season long standings and finished 6th in the 2018 overall season standings. In 2019, she placed 24th in the WTS season standings.
